CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Nyvin]

The Republican KS-Gov map is a total mess.   There is no correlation to any counties.  Even Johnson and Wyandotte are voting differently.

[Nyvin]

These results from CT are terrible for the Rs.

Explain please. I heard the CT candidates are MAGA loyalists mostly, but I'm not sure about that.

The turnout looks pretty bleak for Republicans in CT, but a lot of what's reported so far is Hartford.

[Nyvin]

Coyler conceded the KS-Gov GOP primary

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1029527867011608577

[Nyvin]

Wow, Swanson crashed hard.

[Nyvin]

Vukmir winning is *incredible* for Democrats in Wisconsin. She's a really bad messenger and will do a fine job defining the GOP as establishment and out-of-touch across the state.

Baldwin consistently polled better against Vukmir too.

[Nyvin]

Is Jeff Johnson any different than Pawlenty in any meaningful way other than lower name recognition? 

[Nyvin]

Hopefully there's a lot of Democratic vote outstanding in WI. As much as people say it doesn't matter, the GOP being at 56% of counted ballots thus far wouldn't be an optimistic final number for Democrats.

Yep, great news for Walker right now. Lean--->Likely R this November. So much for the tariffs helping the Dems here. WOW is delivering for the GOP as always.

My dude, Dems are WINNING the primary vote with 85% of Waukesha, 80% of Washington, and 57% of Ozaukee in. Meanwhile, 0% of Dane is in. Only one precinct COMBINED from the three Clinton Northern WI counties (Ashland/Bayfield/Douglas) is in. 0% of Rock County is in.

Not to mention Republican turnout in Minnesota is looking god awful.

How about some ratings changes there Hofoid?

[Nyvin]

So turnout for Republicans tonight is appearing to look like this so far:

Vermont: Pretty good
Wisconsin: On the bad side of mediocre
Connecticut:  Pretty bad
Minnesota: Nightmarish

[Nyvin]

So 2016 is looking like a one-time fluke GOP win rather than the new normal.

Let's hope so.   

The GOP is looking at a potential wipe out in the midwest this year, except maybe Indiana.

[Nyvin]

It still looks like Graham is leading.   Gillum doesn't seem to be competitive since he hasn't consolidated the AA vote like planned and Graham is more popular in the panhandle which should be his base.

I think the map will be very regional,  Levine's base will obviously be south Florida, Graham in Central/North Florida.    The combination of Levine being seen as a rich businessman and Graham running in a very pro-female environment will be enough to let Graham win.  

[Nyvin]

New FL-gov primary poll shows Graham +7 and DeSantis +15.

Graham vs DeSantis is easily the best case scenario for Democrats going into November.

[Nyvin]

New FL-gov primary poll shows Graham +7 and DeSantis +15.

Graham vs DeSantis is easily the best case scenario for Democrats going into November.

What poll?

Gravis

[Nyvin]

Gillum can certainly still win,   it's way too early to call it for Graham.

[Nyvin]

Cant' believe this hasn't been mentioned:

Democratic Primary
Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
50.8%   Al Lawson*   25,162   
49.2%   Alvin Brown   24,352   
25.1% of precincts reporting (68/271)   *Incumbent
49,514 total votes

AOC type upset?

Alvin Brown is the Mayor of Jacksonville, he's not some unknown 20-something.

Also Al Lawson is a first term congressman, not a member of the Dem leadership.

[Nyvin]

Graham is going to end up winning almost ALL the Republican counties and losing almost all the Dem ones, Lmao!!!

[Nyvin]

Broward and Palm Beach are the big unknowns at this point.   Really depends how it goes there, but ironically, it's between Graham and Gillum and not Levine.   Crazy.

I'm expecting Graham to get a boost from the Central timezone counties though.

[Nyvin]

If Broward goes hard for Gillum (ignoring Levine's votes) then he most likely wins.   

The race is lean Gillum right now.

[Nyvin]

Gillum took the lead.

[Nyvin]

Graham in fourth place in Broward,  not a good sign.

[Nyvin]

So Gillum has been doing great with Election day vote...and he's in Second in Broward with the early vote.

I don't see how Graham wins.

[Nyvin]

Graham winning Palm Beach...but nowhere near enough.

[Nyvin]

I was hoping for a Levine victory: he seemed more electable than Gillum (and possibly Graham) and more progressive than Graham, and thus the superior candidate overall in my eyes.

This race is probably Tilt R with Gillum, although I think posters in this thread complaining about Gillum's poor electability forget that DeSantis is not exactly a stellar candidate either.

Truth.   DeSantis might be enough to blow the election for Republicans and give it to Gillum.

[Nyvin]

Pretty much all that's left is in SEFL.   The vote totals are actually going to be really close.

Edit - Alachua hasn't reported much yet either.

[Nyvin]

Looks like the GOP will have more votes

That margin will drop:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1034609403297767424

Don’t think it’s enough for Dems to overtake the GOP though

Probably not, but it's an improvement from the norm though.   Plus primary turnout is really just a test of base enthusiasm more than anything IMO,  doesn't say much about how the election will turn out.

[Nyvin]

The Ward+Arpaio vote is larger than the McSally vote if that matters.