Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Nyvin]

Tuscaloosa, Shelby, and Lee counties all just saw a total Republican collapse, that was crazy

[Nyvin]

Roy Moore: the American François Fillon?

Both are conservatives on the hard-right of their parties who defeated overwhelming frontrunners for their parties' nominations only to be caught by scandal and, despite absolute loyalty from many base voters, end up losing to essentially generic centrist candidates.

Jones is no centrist, and Moore's rhetoric is closer to Le Pen. Jones is more comparable to Hamon or even Melenchon than Macron.

I'd agree with this. Jones, on the issues, is closer to McCaskill than Manchin.

I would even say Tom Carper is more moderate/conservative than Jones, given some of Jones' campaigning.

[Nyvin]

It's crazy that Jones only one 1 of the 7 congressional districts (maybe AL-5 will flip with provisionals, but it will be close)

It really shows the effectiveness of the Republican map,  they really neatly organized their voters to make the districts impenetrable.

If you look at the demographics though, Alabama really should have two Black districts.

[Nyvin]

Rachel Maddow used Miles' map of Alabama's congressional districts in the Senate election

[Nyvin]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not only are there not going to be 20k military ballots, Moore edge in military ballots won't be large enough to shrink Jones victory margin by 20k.   

[Nyvin]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

I know Romney also did relatively well with 18-22 year olds compared to other young voters in 2012.   The statistic didn't really hold through when they voted in 2016 at later ages though.   It seems the very young voters are quite fickle with their voting patterns.

This doesn't explain "everything" about your post, but perhaps is a part of it.

[Nyvin]

Do you know the diierence?

I don't.

Have you been to college or are you still in middle school?

Assuming the latter:

A transposition would involve an 11,000 figure of votes in Jones column, when itnshould have gone in Moore’s column.  Thus, Jones down 11,000 and Moore up 11,000.  Oops!  Moore is now ahead.

Can you give an example of something like this happening in our country's history?  lol

First time for everything, of course, but still....