Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote? (user search)
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  Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What it says on the tin
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 143

Author Topic: Last call: Does Trump win the popular vote?  (Read 2693 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,693
United States


« on: November 14, 2016, 08:12:41 PM »



Texas -
Going into this cycle, Texas had a PVI of R+10. With Clinton at a 2% margin, this means Texas was 11% to the right of the nation which gives it a PVI of R+11. Now, under Cook's forumla, you add the 2012 PVI with the 2016 PVI, then divide by twp (Again, if I understand it correctly). This gives you 21/2, which is 10.5 and thus you round up to get R+11. So, a slight shift to the right in the Lone Star state.

Florida -
Florida's PVI going into this was R+2, and for this cycle was R+3. Add the two together, divide by two and you get Florida likewise nudging up to R+3.

Nevada -
Going into this election, Nevada held a PVI of D+2 while their PVI for this cycle was EVEN. Add the two together, and Nevada's PVI falls to D+1.

Colorado -
Going in, Colorado was D+1 and ended up being D+1. We don't even have to do the math on this one to realize their PVI remained the same.

North Carolina -
Going in, they were R+3 with the final result being R+6. Add them up, and then divided them and you get a new PVI of R+5.



This is all completely wrong.    You don't understand PVI at all.
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