European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[SunSt0rm]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Quite suprising, I expected turnout to be higher given the surge of FvD like the PS 2019 election.

Just voted Labour (twice)

My expectation

VVD 5
FvD 4
PvdA 4
CDA 3
GL 3
CU/SGP 2
D66 2
SP 1
PVV 1
PvdD 1

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 34%, in 2014 it was 32%. Turnout in almost all cities (Rotterdam, Utrecht, Groningen) they track is already higher than in 2014. Final turnout will probably be higher than 40%

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll
PvdA 18.4% 5 seats
VVD 14.6% 4 seats
CDA 12.5% 4 seats
FvD 11.2% 3 seats
GL 10.4% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.2% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.4% 0 seat
Others 3.1%

Wow PvdA largest party

Really a Timerfrans effect as I expected but not by this margin

[SunSt0rm]

SP and PVV really close to the threshold

[SunSt0rm]

Final Exit Poll
PvdA 18.1% 5 seats
VVD 15% 4 seats
CDA 12.3% 4 seats
FvD 11.0% 3 seats
GL 10.5% 3 seats
CU/SGP 7.9% 2 seats
D66 6.3% 2 seats
50+ 4.1% 1 seat
PVV 4.1% 1 seat
SP 3.9% 1 seat
PvdD 3.6% 0 seat
Others 3.3%

Turnout 41% (+4%)

Small changes, no changes in seats

[SunSt0rm]

Can someone explain what GeenStijl is showing from these individual polling places.

They show each party with two different scores. One in grey and one in party colour. Is it comparison to last time, to predicted national result or?

I am not really paying attention, but I guess that the color score is the result, and the grey score is the benchmark (they calculated) they need to reach that to get the particular seat, but I don't know what the benchmark is. For 50+, SP and PvdD I guess its 1 seat, GL 3 seats and D66 and CU/SGP 2 seats. I am not sure if they benchmark for each polling seat or municipality. But I expect the benchmark for the polling station are not accurate as people can vote at any polling station they want in their municipality

[SunSt0rm]

Wait are they counting today?  Didn't think they were allowed to do that!

They are counting, but they are not allowed to publish them officially. Geenstijl just sent volunteers to several polling stations to write down the results so they may project the result based on the partial results

[SunSt0rm]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

[SunSt0rm]

Reports of the PdvA’s death have been greatly exaggerated. 

Polls have shown some recovery for the PvdA, but this result is pure the Timmermans effect not the fact that people are liking PvdA again.

[SunSt0rm]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

my understanding was that they'd allocate seats based on the 29 seat allocation but then not make the last three MEPs until Brexit - that's wrong then?

Threshold is different, Pre-Brexit threshold for 26 seats is 3.85%, whereas post-brexit for 29 seats is 3.45%. Its very unsure that these 4 parties will reach the threshold pre-Brexit, but its very certain that they will reach the threshold for post-brexit

[SunSt0rm]

Which ideologies are doing well so far?

Eurosceptics, Liberals and Greens. Biggest losers are Conservatives and Social Democrats

[SunSt0rm]

PVV and SP are not making it to the parliament based on 85% of the results

[SunSt0rm]

Conservative and Labour 4th and 5th in one of the constituency

East of England
Brexit 38% 3 seats
Lib Dems 23% 2 seats
Greens 13% 1 seat
Conservative 10% 1 seat
Labour 9% 0 seat