PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[jd7171]

For those that think Oz is going to win.......https://www.mediaite.com/politics/dr-oz-roundly-booed-at-pennsylvania-maga-rally-despite-trump-endorsement/. I have seen Zero visible support for him here in MAGA country. Lots of Bartos and Sands signs, some Barnette.

[jd7171]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

[jd7171]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

Thanks for this. It's hard not to get optimistic about Fetterman's chances in these more red areas, especially given the enthusiasm that he seems to bring. From what I can tell, is Oz even doing anything in these areas?

I think there is definitely a case to be made right now regarding both - Fetterman seems to be taking Philly for granted a bit (still unhappy that there's only been 1 event here in the last month+), but Oz at the same time seems to be taking the red areas for granted too - assuming that just because they went for Trump by blood red margins that they'll turnout for him too. Which is certainly possible, but at the same time, you don't even have a GOP Governor campaign trying to GOTV for you at the same time. Oz has seemingly made more a concerted effort to peel away voters with these one-off events in Philly and other suburban counties.

At least on the signs front, it seems like Fetterman has enthusiasm in both red and blue counties. (signs don't vote, i know), but interesting that Oz seems to lack enthusiasm in signs in both red and blue counties on the opposite end.

Oz was in Johnstown on Monday talking with local leaders about drugs and crime. Which is a good topic for him because the area has a major issue with drugs. It plays well because alot of the drugs are brought in from Philly and Pittsburgh. Crime is definitely a problem in Johnstown. Oz has made a stop or two in Blair County, but the others, not sure.

[jd7171]

I was looking through election results on DRA and one race that stood out to me was the 2020 Auditor General Election which was pretty remarkably polarized despite being a relatively low-profile race. The Republican ultimately won the race by about 3 points.

What stoof out to me specifically was in that race, the Republican actually outperformed Trump in rural PA which so far has been quite unusual given that there really didn't seem to be any particularly weird dynamics in this race.

The reason I bring this up is because I kinda always assumed win or lose, Fetterman would probably do better than Biden in significant swaths of rural PA but now that I found another example, I am taking that as less of a given.

Does anyone know if there were specific circumstances that allowed the Republican to do this? Would Oz have the ability to outperform Trump in places like Luzurne and Cambria Counties?

I can make a stab at Cambria. I feel that Oz won't overperform Trump. He will at least get 65 percent where Trump got 68. Any boost Fetterman gets will be more of an anti-Oz vote because he's not from PA, not really a pro-Fetterman boost. Shapiro would be more likely to get a bigger boost and I feel he will get about 40 percent. The thing about this county is after it voted for Obama in 08, there should have been a warning sign for Dems when Romney won by 18 points here. Romney didn't really beat Mccain, it was more that a bunch of Obama voters didn't vote for either candidate. The county is in rough shape for Dems, perfect example is Wolf. Wolf won Cambria by 9 points in 14, but only got 42 percent in 18. Wolf wasn't controversial at this point.

[jd7171]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

[jd7171]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

Yeah I'm kind of surprised Fetterman has not tried to do more college rallies, given he's such a strong candidate with young voters.

The odd thing is he did the IUP rally. I can't think of a candidate who did a rally there. It just seems odd because of the fact that Penn State is a much bigger school. Also, Centre County is a bigger county and growing in population than Indiana and a much more important county to Dems. Between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg it's the only county growing at all.

[jd7171]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

I have to imagine that message is pretty ingrained in voters minds at this voice. We’ll see how much if at all it impacts how they vote.

I know, it's why I'm not voting for him. I know a few others who are doing the same. Some of these people voted for Trump twice. I feel Fetterman's WWC appeal is overrated. I feel that Oz trying to buy a seat could be a reason why Fetterman might do better in WWC areas. The other reason I feel this way is with the race being a tossup...if Fetterman is doing better with these voters due to appeal then where is Oz making up for it? Has to be the suburbs IMO. I can't see Oz doing better than Trump in rural areas. I feel the map will be nearly identical to 2020.  I think the key could be Shapiro's margin, if he wins big enough then there might be enough Indies and moderates to pull him over the finish line.

[jd7171]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

I felt the same thing was possible. With it being close, there had to be a reverse effect.

[jd7171]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1587946155048112128

Good to see, he needs every vote in Dem leaning areas.