Hindsight Is 2020

[NeverAgain]

I look forward to the 2018 midterms.

[NeverAgain]

sounds awesome. I call god-like creature, Nate Silver.

[NeverAgain]

The clown car is filling! I will be up with Nate Silver's 538 electoral map along with analysis of the Democratic field.

[NeverAgain]

Nate Silver's 538 Presents: Profiles and Predictions

Senator Elizabeth Warren

Senator Warren goes first here, as she is the most likely to win the Democratic Nomination in our estimates. Almost 8 years ago, she was thrust into national attention for her win in the Massachusetts Senate Race, against incumbent Scott Brown. Since then she has been a strong advocate for Progressivism and Change in Washington, especially on Wall St. and Campaign Finance Reform.

PROS
• Outspoken Fighter for Progressive Causes. In her 8-years in the Senate, Warren has made a name for herself in progressive circles, especially on Trade/TPP, which she opposes, and Strong Wall St. Reform, as she almost single-handedly created the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau.

• Brings together Hillary and Bernie Supporters. 3 years ago, Warren chose not to endorse either candidate, saying both were great candidates. When it was clear Hillary was the nominee, she became a strong Hillary advocate, angering some Bernie supporters. Since then, Warren has maintained her progressive roots and can tap into both sides of the 2016 Democratic race.

• Looked at as an insider-outsider Warren, Senator now for 7 years, ran her 2012 Senate campaign as an outsider. She was then a Harvard professor with a hit out on Wall St., but her anger at Wall St. pushed her to create the CFPB, and then the Senate. She now has the unique ability to have both outsider experience, and inside government experience

• Passionate Speaker In 2016, she was seen as one of Hillary Clinton's most effective surrogates and now sees a tremendous amount of support at her own rallies, due to her speaking ability.

• Diverse Background Undeniably, Warren's personal life story is one that has amazed many of her supporters and her opponents. There is no doubt that she will use her middle-class background on the campaign trail.

CONS
• Seen as a sell-out to the Corporations by some Bernie supporters. Warren, has been criticized even by some of her most fervent supporters as still being too close to Wall St., as she has taken some funding from Corporate Backers. This is a very small amount and is unlikely to come up on the trail, but still dissuades some "true progressives"

• Seen as too far left to appeal to the White Working Class. The White Working Class, who propelled Donald Trump to victory 3 years ago, now are assumed to be the tipping point for his re-election. Warren is described as being too far too the left of these voters to appeal to them.

• Too Old. Age cannot be looked over when Democrats go to the polls next year. Both sides may be content with choosing two candidates who, while in office, will outlive the life expectancy. But for some Warren's health and age may be a factor.

• Woman. I don't think it can be stressed enough that gender was a factor in 2016, and there is no doubt that it will be again in this cycle. Some say that Hillary Clinton's gender was the defining factor in her winning the nomination, but also her losing the general... (this applies to all female candidates running for the nomination.

• Seen as uncharismatic. Sources close to Senator Warren have described her as a cold fish, but as the majority of American People are unlikely to be too close to the Senator, this may  be a non-issue for many.


Warren's chances of winning: 26%

Mayor Bill DeBlasio

Mayor de Blasio has spent the past 6 years, as Mayor of his beloved hometown of New York City. He has been able to turn the tides on many reforms implemented by Mayors Guiliani and Bloomberg, which he has felt have damaged the city's ability to thrive. Mayor DeBlasio was Hillary Clinton's campaign manager for her successful 2000 Senate run in NY, but his ties to the Clintons may not assist him in a race where "the Clintons" are a liability.

PROS
• Diverse background and family. DeBlasio has an interesting history, and one of hardship. His father left when he was 7, and he soon become the major breadwinner as a teenager. He struggled to make it through college, and did, graduating NYU in 1981. DeBlasio met his wife    Chirlane McCray soon after, and they married in 1994. They currently have two children.

• Seen as a strong leader for progressivism. Mayor DeBlasio has pushed for strong progressive values, such as Universal Pre-K and a Millionaire Tax. These efforts were squashed on the state side, by DeBlasios fellow New Yorker candidate, Governor Cuomo.

• Leans to Progressive Hillary Supporters, and some Bernie Bros. Mayor DeBlasio has been a staunch advocate for Progressive issues, but endorsed Hillary Clinton 3 years ago

CONS
• Seen as Inexperienced 6 year mayor. Mayor DeBlasio’s limited experience would almost disqualify his campaign a decade ago, but in the era of Trump, a man who comes from the city he governs. The point still remains that his only experience is as mayor, still 2 years shy of the experience that Mayor Giuliani had in his 2008 run.

• Seen as weak on crime and police. Mayor DeBlasio has been an outspoken critic of police violence and brutality. This has been taken with offense by much of the police force, who have seen it as an attack on their occupation. While this may endear him to many of those sympathetic to the Black Lives Matter movement (still going strong), it will likely be strongly offset by those that are supportive of the police officers.

• Race of wife and family. We cannot underscore that race does play a major role, and while that will likely not harm him in his primary. Our new poll that still only 87% of the population support/tolerate interracial marriage. And those 13% likely are still the last remnants of extreme hatred in this nation, but likely, they vote.


De Blasio's chances of winning: 15%

Senator Sherrod Brown

Senator Brown was elected to the US House representing Ohio’s 13th district in 1992 and was re-elected 6 times.  He was known for his strong positions on trade, pulling together the opposition to CAFTA.  He also voted against the Iraq War and the Defense of Marriage Act.  He was elected to the Senate in 2006 and was re-elected in 2012.  During his time in the Senate, he has assumed leadership in foreign policy, anti-terrorism, veterans’ affairs, health care, and LGBT rights.

PROS
• Experience in state house and US House and Senate from an important battleground state. There is no doubt that Senator Brown is a very qualified candidate. He has served in various forms of government for 44 years. He also hails and is still beloved by a state which swung by a margin of 12 points for President Trump in 2016.  

• Diverse areas of experience and expertise - trade, foreign policy, veterans affairs, health care, and LGBT rights. Brown has been heralded for his work on many liberal issues “before it was cool”. He was a staunch advocate for LGBT rights, and has extensive knowledge of trade.

• Has worked in leadership roles and had worked across the aisle on bipartisan efforts.In his 13 years in the Senate, Brown has been a leader on many committees and on many issues. This is not likely to change if he does win the Presidency.

CONS
• Only has legislative experience without any executive background. 5 of the last 7 presidents have been elected as executives. While this isn’t a barrier for electability (as seen with President Trump’s 2016 campaign), it may take an adjustment period for him while in office (aka. On the job training).

• Is considered more moderate on many issues. While he is considered to be a progressive, he still lacks the full leftist credentials of say a Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren. This could subtract from the Bernie voters of 4 years past.


Brown’s chances of winning: 9%

[NeverAgain]

Senator Al Franken

Al Franken, Senator for 11 years of his home of Minnesota. Before that, he was a beloved comedian for over 30 years, since his start as a writer on SNL in 1975. Winning his Senate seat by less than 400 votes, to then winning a landslide re-election in the 2014 Republican landslide. In his time in the Senate, he has been a strong advocate for LGBT rights, Criminal Justice Reform, and Infrastructure development.

PROS
• Midwesterner. Senator of a state that only voted for his party’s nominee by just over a point, Franken can appeal to a region that went for the President’s party for the first time since the 80’s, and likely with that, the Presidency.

• One of the first staunch opponents against the President. Franken was noted as setting the Democratic agenda on areas to with with him on, and areas of strong disagreement. Since then he’s kept to those issues and fought for them, along with his colleagues, everyday in the Senate.

CONS
• Seen as not serious - too lighthearted. Franken’s sense of humor has not left him in the Senate. In 2010, he was widely criticized for making faces at fellow Senator Mitch McConnell, for which he later apologized for. The Senator has kept his act clean since then, but his humorous novels, such as “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Liar”, may resurface.

• Wife was an alcoholic. While this con isn’t about him, but it may worry some voters, along with the possibility of him dropping out do to a possible relapse. But, the Senator, due to this, has been a strong advocate of AA and other rehab programs.



Franken's chances of winning: 7%

Senator Ron Wyden

Senator Ron Wyden is the Senior Senator from Oregon, serving from 1996 - PRESENT. He previously served in the US House of Representatives from 1981 to 1996. He has been an advocate for reform of all stripes, from trade to healthcare. He has been very aggressive against President Trump’s actions against one of signature pieces of legislation, the TPP Agreement.

PROS
• Very Experienced. Wyden has a combined 38 years in Washington, to where he has been an advocate for issues all over the board. The Senator has been able to craft bipartisan legislation, and knows how to get things done.

• Works across the aisle. Two of his biggest pieces of legislation (Healthy Americans Act, and the TPP) received strong bipartisan support and both were some of the most hotly debated bills in the Senate. Though both failed, they were standards for future legislation (or trade deals) like the ACA and a new TPP style deal.

CONS
• Seen as way too Moderate. Wyden, though from a liberal state, has been a moderate and even conservative on many issues. On trade, he has been one of the strongest advocates for free trade (NAFTA, CAFTA, and TPP). He has also argued for free market based healthcare reform (HAA). And even argued for the privatization of Medicare.

• Comes from a safe state, and area. Wyden comes from Oregon, and while it was close in 2004, it has stayed solidly blue for decades. Wyden doesn’t add any regional advantage, nor does he give any ground game in the GE or in the primaries.

• Total Insider. As stated, Wyden has been in Washington for almost 4 decades, which is definitely not an asset in the era of Donald Trump. His ability to be an insider, is countered with his lack of funding from Wall St. or big business and his argument that his experience in Washington is beneficial to getting things done.


Wyden's chances of winning: 6%

Senator Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Baldwin was elected this nation’s first LGBT Senator in 2012, after being Congresswoman from her town of Madison for the past decade and a half. The Senator has worked consistently for the rights of LGBT Americans, and for Wisconsinites by passing policies and funding for her native state.

PROS
• On the forefront of LGBT Rights. If elected, not only would Tammy Baldwin be the first female President, she would be the first LGBT President, which would be a huge step forward for Gays and Lesbians here in America, but abroad too. As we’ve said, she has been fighting for LGBT rights for years, and while, some still criticize the advancements of LGBT Americans, the majority of Americans (76-24) say they would “definitely” vote for a gay president.

• Comes from a, now well-known swing state. Wisconsin, and neighboring Michigan were decided by less than a couple thousand votes. Both states, plus a couple other Midwesterners would’ve given Hillary Clinton a victory 3 years ago. Now, Baldwin may be one of the only candidates to redeem the Democratic name in these very crucial states.

• Strong Progressive Values. In her over 2 decades in Washington, Baldwin has been ranked one of the most liberal members, but has been able to work across the aisle for issues that matter to the people of her state.

CONS
• Too far left. In her 2012 campaign she was attacked as being way too far to the left of the Average Wisconsin (and American) voter. While, much of this is talk, some of her stances that out a bit out of the mainstream may be called on by her opponents (both Republicans, and fellow Democrats…).

• LGBT. We’ve already said that Senator Baldwin would likely not have a problem with getting the nomination due to her sexuality, but the rest of the country may not see it that way. Again, a quarter of Americans have said they would not vote for someone who is gay or lesbian, which likely aren’t going to be her voters anyways, but a quarter of the electorate is still a huge amount.



Baldwin's chances of winning: 7%

[NeverAgain]

Governor Tom Wolf

Governor Wolf is the 47th and current Governor of Pennsylvania, since taking office after the 2014 Republican wave. A Democrat, he defeated Republican incumbent Tom Corbett in the 2014 gubernatorial election. Previously, Wolf served as the Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue from April 2007 until November 2008 and as an executive in his family-owned business.

PROS
• Business connections. Governor Wolf is not “all talk” on businesses, he has operated his own successful one for decades, and has been able to speak directly and assist many small business people in Pennsylvania, and now seeks to do this for the rest of the nation.

• Successfully managed the state budget. In Governor Wolf’s first year in office, he was able to pass a budget that includes an increase in education spending, reductions in property taxes and the corporate tax, and a new severance tax on natural gas.

• Won by 10 points, in a Republican year, in a state that voted for President Trump. We cannot underscore the importance of Pennsylvania in last years election, and it’s necessity if President Trump wants to win another term. Governor Wolf won the state by 10 points in 2014, the famous Republican Wave, and again in 2018. This bodes well for him if he does win the nomination

CONS
• Has prostate cancer. While we hate to bring this up, this does play a big role in whether Wolf can even seek the office, let alone win it. He has assured people that it will not affect his ability to function as Governor, but the Presidency is a much more strenuous and draining job, which having their president with a serious disease may hurt his likelihood.

• Low-Middle Approvals. While Governor Wolf has been popular in campaigning and elections (winning strong wins both times). His governing approvals say otherwise, in 2017 his approvals were stuck at the low 40’s and after 2018, they still aren’t getting any better.


Wolf's chances of winning: 2%

Senator Tammy Duckworth

Senator Tammy Duckworth is a decorated Iraq War veteran who served as the Director of the Illinois Department of Veteran Affairs 2008-2009 then as Assistant Secretary for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs for the US Department of Affairs 2009-2011.  She was elected to the U.S. House for Illinois’ 8th district in 2013 and served on the Armed Forces Committee as well as the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.  She was elected to the Senate in 2016, a known supporter of reproductive rights, Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, and veteran health.

PROS
• Compelling life story. Senator Duckworth was born in Thailand to a Thai mother and American father, representing the second Asian-American woman in the Senate.  More compelling, though, is her military history, serving as a pilot that was brought down.  She lost both legs and had an injured her right arm for which she won the Purple Heart.

• Strong expertise on Veteran Affairs.Senator Duckworth served as a US Army helicopter pilot and was severely wounded.  She served in administrative roles in the IL VA and the US VA before being elected to the US House and serving on the Committee for Veterans Affairs.

• Progressive leanings.Senator Duckworth is a known supporter of reproductive rights, Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, and veteran’s health.

CONS
• Seen as Inexperienced with limited legislative experience.Had a very short tenure in the US House before progressing to the Senate.

• Race and being born outside of the US.Senator Duckworth was born in Thailand to a Thai mother and American father.

• No major legislative accomplishments.Senator Duckworth is known to support progressive positions, but has not been at the forefront of any of these causes.


Duckworth's chances of winning: 9%

Senator Cory Booker

Cory Booker, Fmr. Mayor, and now Senator of New Jersey, for 7 years. Now has both executive and legislative experience. Booker has been a national figure since the mid-2000s, when he was elected mayor of Newark, New Jersey. His résumé - football at Stanford, Rhodes scholarship - is very impressive.

PROS
• Young. At just 50, Booker is seen as a young leader for Democrats, and in a field of many older than 65, he may have a slight advantage over the crowd.

• Charismatic and Passionate Speaker. There is little argument over Senator Booker’s ability to speak to mass crowds, passionately about the issues. He is seen as the second coming of Fmr. President Obama for his charismatic speaker style, and down-to-earth manner.

• Race. As we’ve said, Senator Booker’s race is a major factor in his current success in the nomination race. His ability to reach out to Southern African-Americans, will be crucial in his goal to become the face of the Democrats for 2020.

CONS
• Ties to Wall Street. For Democrats, there is no ignoring the fact that Senator Booker is EXTREMELY cosy with Wall St., which in Year 4 of the outsider President, is not a help to his campaign.

• Very little, to no accomplishment in the Senate. Now, having been in the Senate for 6 years, he has accomplished very little, while there. While President Obama was criticized for this, being there for only 4, he was able to overcome that to win not only the nomination, but two terms as President.

• Shaky 2013 + 2014 Campaigns. Booker was criticized for his two very “shaky” campaign two years in a row. Both started out as Republican leads (or tossups), in a VERY Democratic State. Booker did pull off a 10 point victory both times, but at a very high cost (spending 58-1 over his opponent).


Booker's chances of winning: 7%

Senator Maria Cantwell

Senator Cantwell is the Junior United States Senator from Washington, serving since 2001. She previously served in the Washington House of Representatives from 1987 to 1993 and then in the United States House of Representatives from Washington's 1st congressional district from 1993 to 1995, after which she worked as an executive for RealNetworks. She is Washington's second female senator, after Patty Murray.

PROS
• Has taken strong stands on the issues, especially privacy. Cantwell was arguably single-handedly the reason the “Clipper-Chip”, which would have allowed the NSA to tap phone lines and other technologies, failed. She has been a strong advocate for environmental fairness and free trade, voting for NAFTA, and helping write TPP.

• Known as a strong fighter. In her multiple campaigns, Cantwell has been known for her aggressive campaigning, never giving up until the bitter end. In her 1994 Congressional Race, she lost by a mere couple hundred votes, and went into the private sector, but she came back to win the Democratic nomination in a heated race 3-1, and went on to win the 2000 Senate Race, due to her campaigning style.

CONS
• Too Moderate/Hawkish. Before she was known as “Senator Cantwell”, she was a Representative, who was known as the most “pro-business” in the country, she voted for the Iraq War, and was staunchly against the public option for ACA. While this may attract many Moderates to the Democratic fold, it may also push away progressives who seem to be so vital to the election this year..

Cantwell's chances of winning: 2%

[NeverAgain]

Governor Jerry Brown

Fmr. Governor Brown is now the successful 4 term Governor of his home of California. He’s been everything from Presidential Candidate to a student of Buddhist teachings. This is his 4th Presidential Run, and on the chance it’s successful… We’ll just have to see how President Moonbeam handles the Oval Office.

PROS
• EXPERIENCED. Brown has been in and out of politics since he was basically born. His father, Pat Brown, was elected to 2 terms as governor and then in 1966, Brown was elected at 28 to the position of AG of California, the youngest ever. Now he has over 50 years of governmental experience, and his career apparently isn’t over yet.

• Was a very popular governor. Brown was extremely popular as governor, he cut taxes for millions of Californians, raised wages for all workers, and helped to resolve the dire effects of climate change in his state (aka - the drought).

• Seen as Progressive Icon for his runs in the 80’s and 90’s. In 1992, Brown championed many liberal issues such as the environment and campaign finance reform. He has continued this progressive streak and will likely pick up some former Bernie supporters in the process.

CONS
• Too old. At age 81 (82 on inauguration day), he will most definitely be the oldest President in this nation’s history. Now, as we all are living much longer, this won’t the most major deciding issue in the race, but it is very worrying that the President will likely be older than 90% of the population when he is sworn in.

• Too moderate on taxes. In 1992, Governor Brown campaigned strongly on the “flat tax” which abolished the progressive tax bracket system, replacing it with a 15% income tax for all Americans. This flew directly in the face of Democratic ideals, and even some Republicans drew up red flags. Governor Brown hasn’t released his plan on taxes yet, but for the average Democratic voter this could be a hot issue.


Brown's chances of winning: 2%

Governor Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo is the 56th Governor of New York since January 1, 2011. Cuomo was elected in 2010, holding the same position his father, Mario Cuomo, held for three terms from 1983 to 1995. He was also Secretary of HUD under President Clinton between 1997-2001. He was re-elected Governor in 2014 and 2018, after Democratic victories of the legalization of same sex marriage and tightening gun regulations.

PROS
• Comes from a famous political family. Now the Cuomo’s have been a force in the Democratic party for decades, and while much of their influence is limited to New York, the “old guard” would certainly line up to support the Governor.

• Successful 3-term governor of NY. Governor Cuomo has been seen as very successful in his actions as Governor. He’s cut taxes, supported sound environmental policies, and worked on passing gun regulations to protect his constituents. Though this success is solely for New Yorkers, many Democrats may seek to support these policies nationwide.

CONS
• Seen as too centrist - Angers Progressives. As Governor, Cuomo has been liberal on many issues, but apparently not on the ones that count for many progressives, especially taxes and the role of government. In 2014 he faced a spirited Primary challenge from Zephyr Teachout, a very liberal progressive from upstate New York. She lost, but did weaken the Governor. He has seemingly shored up these problems, but the issue will still remain

• Are Americans New York’d out? In 2016, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump haild from, and set their campaign HQ’s in New York, now 3 years later, both Cuomo and DeBlasio are possible Trump challengers, and so the worry will likely still remain that of the 50 states, it seems only one can nominate Presidential candidates.

Cuomo's chances of winning: 7%

538 General Election Map

[NeverAgain]

Go Al!