Why didn’t New York pass another Hochulmander? (user search)
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  Why didn’t New York pass another Hochulmander? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why didn’t New York pass another Hochulmander?  (Read 903 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 42,011
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« on: February 28, 2024, 05:16:56 PM »

Short version: Political climate change.
Long version: (this exquisite post)
The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.
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