IA-Selzer: Grassley +12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alright. Back to Safe R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

I moved my rating in response to the shock Selzer poll from about a month ago. Now Grassley is over 50 again, I adjusted accordingly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

I moved my rating in response to the shock Selzer poll from about a month ago. Now Grassley is over 50 again, I adjusted accordingly.

This honestly reads like satire. Assuming it isn’t, maybe you should reconsider your overall approach rather than just letting poll margins dictate your predictions (esp. in cases in which said polls show rosy results for your party, which is of course most of the time) without paying attention to fundamentals such as state lean/trend and state demographics.

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

"Look, fundamentals are important, but prestigious authority figures are prestigious authority figures. Who needs critical thinking when Nate Silver, Ann Selzer, and Jon Ralston can do the thinking for me?"

I trust Selzer over my priors about how a race is going to go. Maybe that was unwise. I have a history of overestimating more often than underestimating Ds here. I had Iowa as a Clinton state and expected Biden to make it closer. I in fact was among those who doubted her last poll in 2020, only for it to blow up in my face. I learned my lesson then...
Your "prestigious authority figures" line is just hamfisted. I do not place absolute trust in the likes of Ralston or Silver, actually...I think Ralston might be underestimating the importance of changes to the NV voting regime this time around, but that's the topic for another thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story, despite everything suggesting that this would be a great way for them to profit on net from doing so.
Obama insulted me in a phone call! See? I can play make-believe too!
...
This ain't it, chief.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story, despite everything suggesting that this would be a great way for them to profit on net from doing so.
Obama insulted me in a phone call! See? I can play make-believe too!
...
This ain't it, chief.

Local news reported it at the time, but thanks for playing

There's a difference between reporting on the story and running it and implying that it is legit. Show me evidence they did the latter, then I might put more credence in this allegation. Until then, ciao.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story,

It was literally reported in the same newspaper that we’re lending so much credence for this poll, and it was based on a filed police report rather than a public allegation designed to tank his campaign or reputation. The police found no foundation for a further investigation, but it’s much more credible on its face than most similar accusations we’ve seen, and you’re just making things up.

I saw this article and have heard of this police report. The police report is credible but not infallible (it might be more or less bad than as described).
The language used by many on this forum is hyperbolic and this is just way too close to prudery for me. The involved parties even were drunk, which makes a difference in a situation like this! Sorry, this is more of a nothingburger than it isn't. Not something to disendorse a candidate for. Any harm he could have arguably done, considering the level this is on (pretty mild at worst, considering the broader scheme of things), is far outweighed by the benefit of having an additional Democratic vote in the Senate.
Sorry, not sorry! I know most Democrats would rather have Roe vs Wade protected and this man in the Senate than vice versa. No matter what they claim on this "blog" (provided they post on it).
EDIT: before you ask, no, if this was a Republican I'd still be saying the same thing...policy matters more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

A guy who thought this race would be an easy R win, along with Pennsylvania, and thought NH would be be at least closer for Rs than WI would be for Ds, because "muh fundamentals" and "muh partisan lean" and "muh actual special elections held this year don't count for anything, idiot" doesn't deserve any "accolades" because he was technically right in a coin flip race that again, he thought would be far from a coin flip.

You are entitled to think what you want about IndyRep. I just felt that I should keep to my word and do what I already said I would do.