not good for Ryan that Vance hit 50%. Does Cygnal have an R house effect?
They are Republican-affiliated, but no, if anything they had a Democratic house effect in 2020. (They also overestimated Democrats in 2018, though they were among the very few pollsters to call all of Braun/Hawley/DeSantis all winning. Though they had Bill Nelson up).
The really fascinating thing is that they have an enormous GOP landslide in NV (like, GOP clearly sweeping all 4 House seats), but still think Ryan will stay relatively close to Vance. And they're pretty bullish on Michigan Democrats.
So I guess you can't speak of a generalized house effect here.
This poll still suffices as proof that this, when push comes to shove, is Vance's race to lose, though Ryan could make it very close.
