UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thoughts on Vernon Bogdanor? I've been watching to his lectures recently on Youtube and have found them rather interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is a better (bad but entertaining) journalist? John Rentoul or Allistair Heath?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But then, if Hague could be convinced to do the whole log flume thing (for the uninitiated - google it, it’s worth it), maybe he just had awful advisors, and untested instincts.

Hague's major spin doctor was Amanda Platell, so this is definitely true.

I googled 'Ian Duncan Smith log flume' and I got nothing...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was watching The New Labour Revolution on Youtube and I saw John Rentoul's name in the credits. After I paused and did a bit of a double take, my reaction to myself was 'Of course it is'.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1698732713287528748?s=46
IMO this will be a really close election guys what do you think

Always a sign your party is presently in a good position when the PM is behind the Leader of Opposition in the poll question of who is better at working with foreign leaders...
EDIT: That barely 20% of people say Sunak tells the truth is probably among the worst signs for the Tories here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

*London gets rainiest day in five years*
Tory press: increase in rain may yet cause more problems for Keir Starmer

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Britain today is what happens when one section of society, fêted and coddled in retirement, doomscrolling through each day and central to election success for over a decade and is still, relatively loyal to the government is it's sole focus.

Manufactured panics and concerns take months to go from
fringe to mainstream amongst people who have time to endlessly consume them.

But its an electoral dead end. Not just in itself, but as I asked just the other day - what happens when these people start dying off in large numbers, which is not that far off now?

Basically the Tory message to younger people is "YOU ARE WOKE SCUM AND WE HATE YOU".

Yup.

Generational cleavage was always going to do this. It's by design, not by accident (if we look at generational recovery from the 2008 crash) and has won the Tories all the big prizes, including Brexit (and the indy ref too) for a decade and a half.

They know it's an electoral dead end. I posted a while ago there's about a 2.5 to 3 point swing since 2019 just based on people joining the register and others 'leaving'.

That dead end has been reached.

The rush towards authoritarianism is designed to delegitimise younger voters and their concerns. Not just for the rest of this government, but any Labour redress in the next parliament.

So this is a way to shore up these people for the Conservatives over the following decade as the Tories will have to pivot somehow to try to contend for power again?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Congrats to Suella for perhaps being the first person ever to be fired from a specific Great Office of the State by two consecutive PMs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From 1979 to 2017 every election was in April, May, or June.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From 1979 to 2017 every election was in April, May, or June.

Though before that, autumn/winter elections were quite common.

How likely are we to see a return to the heyday of winter/autumn elections?  What would be the prerequisites for something in that direction to happen?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From 1979 to 2017 every election was in April, May, or June.

My understanding is that the 2019 election was held in December to break the deadlock in parliment? And polling was looking good for Johnson?

But otherwise not held in December to not conflict with the Christmas season?

Why do you think I stopped at 2017?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Westminster keep the issue settled if the public verdict is so damning?
UK public overwhelmingly say Brexit has clearly failed

There would need to be a pressure campaign similar to UKIP 2013-16. Labour MP’s are essentially traumatised by what happened 16-19, and afraid of their own shadows on this issue, the majority won’t move either until they are forced or have overwhelming concrete evidence the public has changed.

The public will can be a fickle thing. Even if they wanted to reverse Brexit, they'd have to contend with the fact UK EU membership came with carveouts they would be unlikely to secure a second time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Tories are operating on Scott Morrison Logic, which is never good for one's political health. Everyone thought 2021 would be the election out here, then all the scandals came out about Morrison's government and he decided to wait as long as he could in the hope the damage would be lessened.

Like Morrison, it seems more vibes than actual policy changes (including the Labo(u)r opposition trying not to be very distinctive on the issue).

One difference is that their position is far worse than Morrison's. To make a soccer analogy...they are already playing with only eight players. So it's probably not nearly as bad for them in practice for them to feel this way, if anything. (in terms of success chances)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At the end of a febrile Westminster week, some light relief from Ipsos, who’ve published a survey as part of a larger project on the importance of question ordering:

For the uninitiated.

Quite hilarious. Props to IPSOS.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So much time, energy, importance and legal cash - applied to a seven day suspension.

Scottish politics at its wackiest.

He just couldn't take the 'L'

Knowing when to cut your losses is a good skill.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This advertisement for Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister was paid for by the Conservative and Unionist Party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another day, another embarrassment for Rishi Sunak.