Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

I guess "status quo" minded people are disproportionately likely to live in rural areas? With UNITA doing well among discontented people in cities, and people discontented from the inequalities from decades of MPLA rule.
That's the best I can come up with right now, anyway...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

Massive poverty and unemployment is eroding MPLA's support in urban areas. Plus, almost 60% of Angola's population is bellow 25 years old and they live, in their majority, in urban areas.

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

Last-minute deciders going for UNITA, from the looks of it. The situation on economic problems and desire for some change among some in the electorate must have weighed on their minds pretty heavily.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

Last-minute deciders going for UNITA, from the looks of it. The situation on economic problems and desire for some change among some in the electorate must have weighed on their minds pretty heavily.

One should never discount the possibility of electoral rigging in countries like this. The opaque counting process makes it all the more suspect.

I don't disagree, at least here. But then that raises the question - why would they let their majority get so small? Especially with the slow vote count. It would be easy to inflate that margin and make it more comfortable if they wanted, right? Instead of, say, MPLA with a mere 52-53% of seats.