PPIC poll of CA has biden at 32-63 approval in orange and SD county

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

Lol you do realize KBJ gets appointed to the Crt Biden is gonna get a huge bump on EDay right now the polls are meaningless wasn't Newsom was supposed to lose the Recall due to lack of Latino support

Why do users do this Doom and it's only April

I'm actually saying there's a lot of possibilities. My wording implicitly said "Ds can potentially do very well here in November" (among other things), because I did not rule out the possibility.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0322.pdf

on page 21 of the pdf

that seems on paper to be really bad news for the dems in districts down there

i know i know some of it is dems not pleased with him but will never vote gop, but the problem is that many won't turn out in 2022. And OC has a huge age gap in terms of party preference.

I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP sweeps OC in 2022 in a reverse of 2018 if these numbers are accurate.

Nothing is out of the question at this stage in OC (except the GOP winning whatever the Latino CD is).
It won't be very shocking if Rs do well here in a good year for them anyway. The road to a GOP house majority arguably probably runs through avoiding a sweep here anyway.

The small size of the Democratic majority makes a Republican Congress almost guaranteed. The question in Southern California is whether they can make that majority safe in 2024.

Personal opinion here: It's foolish to speak with such certainty, and redistricting changes the ballgame a bit.
The state of Biden's approvals after Labor Day and GCB polling after that is when I'll start to consider being comfortable speaking in certainties.