Alberta election 2023

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many seats would you categorize as "rural"?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many seats would you categorize as "rural"?

Alberta is easy to break down. 1/3 live in Calgary, 1/3 live in Edmonton, 1/3 live in the rest. Of course "the rest" is not entirely rural, but most small cities vote like the rurals, except for Lethbridge.

Ah. That bares out in my playing with Boundary Assistant (One time I even made 3 district Alberta and roughly ended up with what you have just described)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

There are those, and not just conspiracy theorist types who think the Federal Liberals agree with that and have been trying to help Danielle Smith, whether it was with the 'just transition' or pushing back against Smith's 'Sovereignty Act.'

I don't agree in that helping fossil fuel sector workers to retrain sounds like 'mom and apple pie stuff' and the phrase' just transition' apparently came from the civil service, and it seemed to me Trudeau simply slipped up in pushing back one time on the 'Sovereignty Act' rather than continuing their policy of ignoring it, but it's not hard to see the logic of this 'conspiracy theory.'

Seems that, if I was Trudeau, the ideal scenario is a Smith win by 2 or 3 seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For some reason, I was not aware that Alberta is in a middle of an election.
I guess time flies...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

God, I'm really hating this election. I hate the use of "American-style" anything in the context of Canadian politics because its usually a huge oversimplification used to advance a political agenda. But this really is an American-style election. Very polarized between two parties with no signs of a break in the deadlock, with partisans mainly resorting to attacks to get their base angry enough to vote.

Well, Alberta was settled by Americans.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-elections-2023-calgary-edmonton-ridings-1.6833695
The key ridings they postulate:
Calgary-Elbow
Calgary-Acadia
Calgary-North West
Calgary-Cross
Lethbridge-East and Lethbridge-West
Banff-Kananaskis
Edmonton-South West
Morinville-St. Albert
Edmonton-Sherwood Park
Sherwood Park
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
Lesser Slave Lake

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These people are unironically repurposing the Solidarność logo. I am going to be the Joker.

Well, that's Artur Pawlowski's leadership for you.  Basically, still pathologically "fighting the Communists" in his native Poland.  If it were anyone *but* Pawlowski leading the party, they wouldn't resort to this stunt...

The man's got determination and heaps of motivation, you've got to give him that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First Abacus poll conducted after the campaign began shows sizable lead for NDP. They're racking up a lot of support in Edmonton, obviously, but they're leading in Calgary by 6% and within 8 points of the UCP in the rest of Alberta as well.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1657404772490592256?s=20

https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/

This feels like it's close to 2015 numbers, no?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sign watch:

In Cardston I saw no NDP signs (as one would expect) but the signs I did see were split between the government candidate and independent (formerly with the Wildrose Independence Party) Angela Tabak. I don't know if she's Mormon, which would explain things, but anyway I was surprised by how many signs she had. This area obviously has a history of supporting right-of-mainstream candidates, so maybe she'll do well.

In Fort MacLeod and environs I saw a surprising number of signs for NDP (maybe star) candidate Kevin Van Tighem. It doesn't seem plausible that he could win, but that area did elect the first NDP MLA in Alberta history. I know there has been some wacky stuff with the UCP nomination there being taken over by the far right, but most of the signs I saw were for the UCP candidate.

I wish I could have had the time to go into Lethbridge and see what things looked like there, but alas.

Thanks for keeping us *posted*.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

How does your poll impact thus far what you would guess in regards to who wins and loses?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Marie Renaud look set to be the first MLA from the riding of St. Albert to win three consecutive terms since 1967?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Today's Mainstreet tracker has the UCP lead down to 1.2%: 47.1-45.9.

Given what can probably be assumed, the UCP needs to lead by a few points to have a tied seat count most likely, right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gonna guess...
UCP 45 51%
NDP 42 46%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Less than minute until polls close.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polls closed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBC calls Peace River for UCP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBC calls Camrose for UCP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In her concession speech Notley says this is the biggest opposition in Alberta's history.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much of the early vote is currently in?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=550990.msg9087628#msg9087628
This election has inspired me to make a thread.
Commentary very welcome.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The NDP did win one rural seat - Banff-Kananaskis. I'd like to see an analysis of that win. Often when the NDP does win rural seats in the west its ones in the far north that are heavily Indigenous - but that does not seem to be the case with Banff. I wonder if its more dependent on tourism and therefore votes more like an NDP seat on Vancouver island or in the Kootenays?

Tourism seems like the obvious answer. Banff itself is all about tourism and B-K includes all of Banff National Park, and there are several ski resorts. The constituency also has two native reserves with a combined population of a little over 6k, that's 1/8 of the total population in the constituency.

Funnily enough, Banff-Kananaskis saw the UCP candidate give a victory speech before the vote tallies changed and she learned she was unseated.
https://www.rmoutlook.com/banff/ndps-elmeligi-takes-banff-kananaskis-riding-by-fewer-than-200-votes-7069660