This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.
I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.
I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.
Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022
Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:
ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)
Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.
The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.
