Australia 2022 Election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

good idea if the Greens want to become the Australian Democrats and the Libs want Palmer to become a major party.

It might make some sense for the Liberals (key word being: some, it still doesn't make sense overall), but the Nationals would have to have a lobotomy to agree to this deal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question: any instances of a veteran Senator being dumped from first place to third and still winning re-election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Coalition unable to form a majority government, and I think we can rule out a minority government as well.

ABC projecting that Jason Falinski has lost Mackellar to the teal independent.

Looking at his voting record, he was ripe for challenge. This seems to be the first ever occasion Mackellar didn't vote for the endorsed Liberal candidate since it was established.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, it's a bloodbath for the teals.

It's interesting just how diabolically low the primary vote for both parties is.. especially Labor.  I really wonder what went so wrong in Tasmania.

Victoria is looking really bad for the Liberals.  Not what I expected at all.

It seems to vary from seat to seat. In Casey, the ALP only has a +0.7% swing in its favor, but Chisholm is +6.8%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

North Sydney seems lost, with Zimmerman conceding, second seat lost to the Teals by the Coalition, after MacKellar was lost earlier.

That's a monster swing, ouch.
13.4%...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

Teal independents are independents funded by a climate change-driven group that is endorsing independents who are candidates with pro-carbon neutral policies. They are by-and-large running in UMC electorates that have traditionally been firmly Liberal, or "blue-ribbon".
Blue+green=teal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Labor leading in Hunter. Currently have a +0.4% swing in their favor, nearly 7% margin over the Nationals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks for the info! Interesting wins for these Independents. Also, Labor is at 72 seats now, I know it's still early, but it seems almost certain that Albanese will become PM.

No prob man! Obrigado!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's with the Liberal swings in Western Sydney?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a +7.4% swing against Alan Tudge in Aston (eastern Melbourne), with 45% counted. He's ahead of Labor by 5%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

cracking up at Keneally struggling to win Fowler against an independent. What a cursed career she has had.


Looks like Gilmore may be the only Lab>Lib switch owing to a popular local Lib MP standing. They did have bad swings in many areas but it largely didn't show up in seat numbers (e.g. the Tasmania swing electorates, and safe ALP northern Melbourne suburbs)

For that matter, here are all the seats showing a swing right now to the Liberals against Labor and with them as the leading two parties:
Bass
Blaxland
Braddon
Bruce
Calwell
Chifley
Flinders
Fraser
Gellibrand
Gilmore
Gorton
Hawke
Herbert
Holt
Isaacs
Lalor
La Trobe
Lindsay
Lingiari
Lyons
McEwen
Paterson
Scullin
Spence
Wannon
Werriwa
Whitlam

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Ian Goodenough get Moore votes to put away his seat? Only time will tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Albo is now speaking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(ABC News)
A picture says a thousand words.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

they should make Katter speaker for banter.

Speaker Katter will order the bringing in of a crocodile into the chamber if that is what is needed to restore order in the Parliament.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I was looking at the endorsements and found that the Northern Territory News was the only News Corp paper to endorse Labor. Then I found it also endorsed Labor in 2019 and 2016.
What makes the NT News special?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know, it's less the fact that there are still uncalled seats 3 days after the vote, and more that the counting seems to be going at the pace of 2-3% per day. At this rate it's going to take two weeks to have final results.

You’re literally correct. Postal votes must be received within 13 days after polls close, then the weekend a fortnight after polling day is when they conduct the final distribution of preferences, with the results officially declared on the Monday through Wednesday the week after.
But if you think that’s bad the final declaration of Senate results isn’t until 4-5 weeks after polling day!

Ah! Looks like the "Washminster" nickname really checks out!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TL;DR of the last 3 pages or so in 2 mins

Thanks for sharing this with us. I laughed so hard at the video, lol.

This guy's "Australia in 2 mins" videos are stylistically inspired by a US-based YouTube personality who has an Australian father. One of the points made here was the ALP's delicate balancing act of the traditional blue-collar working class and of urbane/cosmopolitan professional class voters. Wonder if there were any noticeable swings of various "visible minority" groups or "subordinate class" constituencies elsewhere.

Not necessarily anti-Labor swing, but swings in some immigrant-heavy seats were relatively muted, IIRC.
I'd have to look at the updated results, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If there are actually people saying it *guarantees* them the next election, then it looks like utter hubris to me. I don't think that three years ago, you'd see many people predicting, say, the teal independents being a real political force, let alone the sheer amount of success they had in this election. It's really quite perilous to be too confident.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

Why so?
And do you think Durack is winnable for Labor in the future?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like the only two House of Representatives seats left in substantial doubt are Gilmore and Brisbane at this point.

In this late stage, do you expect a Labor majority or a Labor minority?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I missed some M.Ps earlier in the various categories, so I'll throw this to the board.

Labor M.Ps with law degrees
1.Andrew Leigh, lawyer and economics professor
2.Jason Clare, Bachelor of laws
3.Kristy McBain, lawyer
4.Michelle Rowland, telecommunications firm senior lawyer
5.Tony Burke, Bachelor of laws
6.Stephen Jones, lawyer
7.Shayne Neumann, family law lawyer and firm partner
8.Anika Wells, compensation law lawyer
9.Graham Perrett, solicitor
10.Mark Butler, Bachelor of laws
11.Julian Hill, Bachelor of laws
12.Richard Marles, labor lawyer
13.Peta Murphy, lawyer and legal aid senior public defender
14.Daniel Mulino, Bachelor of laws
15.Tim Watts, lawyer and Telstra coporate relations manager
16.Brendan O'Connor, lawyer
17.Clare O'Neil, lawyer
18.Mark Dreyfus, lawyer and Law Council of Australia Director
19.Bill Shorten, lawyer
20.Andrew Giles, labor lawyer
21.Peter Khalil, Bachelor of laws
22.Madeleine King, commercial law lawyer
23.Matt Keogh, commercial litigation lawyer and former federal prosecutor

Union Officials/Staffers
1.David Smith, professionals Australia union Australian Capital Territory director
2.Ed Husic, CEPU national president
3.Matt Thistlewaite, Australian workers union New South Wales vice president
4.Pat Conroy, Australian manufacturing workers union national economist
5.Tony Burke, SDA union organiser
6.Stephen Jones, community and public sector union national secretary
7.Marion Scrymgour, 'union activist' (whatever that means)
8.Mark Butler, HMU union South Australian secretary
9.Amanda Rishworth, SDA union organiser
10.Matt Burnell, transport workers union organiser
11.Lisa Chesters, United Voice union organiser
12.Carina Garland, Victorian trades hall council assistant secretary
13.Ged Kearney, President Australian council of trade unions
14.Richard Marles, Australian countil of trade unions assistant secretary
15.Brendan O'Connor, Australian services union assistant national secretary
16.Cassandra Fernando, SDA union organiser
17.Bill Shorten, Australian workers union national secretary
18.Patrick Gorman, United Voice union director

Business
1.Jerome Laxale, family beauty products company director
2.Jason Clare, Transurban Inc. executive
3.Emma McBride, Bendigo bank branch director
4.Dan Repacholi, engineering business owner
5.Susan Templeman, owner 'Media Skills' (consultancy)
6.Andrew Charlton, co-owner Alpha Beta Strategies
7.Meryl Swanson, cafe owner
8.Shayne Neumann, family law lawyer and firm partner
9.Tony Zappia, fitness centres owner
10.Brian Mitchell, P.R and communications firm owner
11.Daniel Mulino, Pottinger Inc director of policy
12.Anne Aly, Anti terrorism consultant (or something like that)
13.Tania Lawrence, Beelu Forest Distilling Company managing director
14.Sam Lim, small business owner

Economics
1.Alicia Payne, B.A-economics, National Centre for Social and Economic Modeling researcher
2.Andrew Leigh, PhD-Public Policy, economics professor
3.Anthony Albanese, B.A-economics
4.Matt Thislewaite, B.A-economics
5.Chris Bowen, B.A-economics
6.Andrew Charlton, PhD-economics, P.M Kevin Rudd chief economics advisor
7.Pat Conroy, B.A-economics, Australian manufacturing workers union national economist
8.Fiona Phillips, B.A-economics
9.Shayne Neumann, B.A-government and economics
10.Daniel Molino, PhD-economics
11.Tania Lawrence, B.A-economics

Medical
1.Emma McBride, hospital chief pharmacist
2.Mike Freelander, hospital paediatrician and lecturer
3.Gordon Reid, emergency department physician
4.Amanda Rishworth, clinical psychologist
5.Catherine King, Australian health department director of injury prevention
6.Ged Kearney, registered nurse and nurse education manager
7.Michelle Ananda-Rajah, infectious disease physician and clinician

Science
1.Emma McBride, Bsc-pharmacy, hospital chief phamacist
2.Dan Repacholi, engineering business owner (seems to know about science)
3.Mike Freelander, M.D, hospital paediatrician and lecturer
4.Gordon Reid, M.D, emergency department physician
5.Julian Hill, Bsc-chemistry
6.Ged Kearney, Bsc-Nursing, registered nurse and nurse education manager
7.Michelle Anandah-Rajah, M.D, infectious disease physician and clinician
8.Madeiline King, Bsc-aerospace engineering (I think)
9.Zaeta Mascarendras, Bsc-engineering, engineer

Educators
1.Andrew Leigh, economics professor
2.Linda Burney, teacher and education consultant
3.Mike Freelander, hospital paediatrician and lecturer
4.Fiona Phillips, commerce lecturer
5.Graham Perrett, teacher
6.Amanda Rishworth, swimming instructor
7.Maria Vamvakinou, high school teacher
8.Ged Kearney, nurse education manager and former nurse educator
9.Libby Coker, diploma-education, Victorian department of education manager (whatever that means)
10.Joanne Ryan, primary school principal
11.Anne Aly, terrorism professor
12.Josh Wilson, lecturer

Municipal office holders
1.Jerome Laxale, Ryde mayor
2.Kristy McBain, Bega Valley Shire mayor
3.Michelle Rowland, Blacktown deputy mayor
4.Chris Bowen, Fairfield mayor
5.Sharon Claydon, Newcastle city councilor
6.Anne Stanley, Liverpool city councilor
7.Milton Dick, Brisbane city councilor
8.Tony Zappia, Salisbury mayor
9.Julian Hill, Port Phillip mayor
10.Maria Vamvakinou, Northcote city councilor
11.Libby Coker, Surf Coast Shire mayor
12.Clare O'Neil, Greater Dendenong mayor
13.Josh Wilson, Fremantle city councilor
14.Tracey Roberts, Wanneroo mayor

I said I had obsessive compulsive personality disorder!

Thanks for the very thorough run-down.