2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

Is it strange to have 25% undecided in a four-candidate race?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

Is it strange to have 25% undecided in a four-candidate race?

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.

Very likely KMT rebels win and with a good margin.  The DPP has a chance IF both
a) The Liu faction is determined to stop the Huang faction KMT rebel and goes on a kamikaze attack at the grassroots of the KMT rebel candidate
AND
b) The NPP vote tactically shift their vote toward the DPP candidate last minute

Either one could end up being true but both at the same time is unlikely

If KMT loses this somehow, is this actually bad for the KMT overall?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

.
The macro picture continues to be the theme I raised before that in Oriental political systems politics are transactional and very time-consuming.  This plus female hypergamy means any successful women politician is unlikely to find a husband to her liking that will accept the amount of time she will use up for her political career.  高虹安(Ann Kao) is 38 and it is clear looking at her picture that she was and most likely continues to be a very eligible bachelorette.  But she has an "assistant" boyfriend which I am almost certain she will not look up to enough to want to be her husband.  And anyone she would consider becoming her husband will not put up with her work lifestyle.  She is pretty much at the end of childbearing age so she will join all the other Oriental women politicians that will be childless.

You know, I really appreciate your in-depth and detailed analyses of Taiwanese politics. And then…

It's a window into a different way of doing politics, thus helping us understand more easily what's going on. I don't know about you, but it's something I feel I'm better off with than without.
If you take issue with what he's said, take that up with 1.4 billion Chinese, 200 million Koreans and Japanese, and other people from the region.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Various decisions made by the ROC election commission on voting this year

1) Those with COVID-19 cannot vote
2) COVID-19 restrictions on PRC-ROC transit continue to be in place despite the fact that PRC is supportive of opening up completely and COVID-19 has pretty much burned through ROC in the summer making such restrictions really unnecessary from ROC's point of view.  This is relevant because 1.5 million ROC voters (voting with their feet) work and live in Mainland China and almost all of them will not be able to come back to vote (although historically they usually show up for Prez elections and not midterms)
3) No exceptions on 300K eligible voters that reside aboard on residency requirements to vote.  Namely, such voters must have lived on ROC for 4 months over a 2 year period which is pretty much impossible due to COVID-19 since 2020.  Since Mainland China is part of the ROC as per the ROC Constitution the rules are different for them.  Many voters living abroad returned to vote only to discover they cannot until 4 months later when the election is already over.
4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections
5) Government-funded extra bus and transit services to transport people from where they work to their home county are not available this year.

The ROC Election Commission claims this is all based on guidance from the Department of Health due to COVID-19.  It is clear what is really going on is the DPP does not want pro-PRC voters to vote (number 2) from above) and is concerned that their support with youth voters is soft (numbers 4) and 5).)

I wonder where Stacey Abrams and the Georgia Democrats are?  They should be here yelling about voter impression and insisting on a boycott of ROC.

Has this caused any kind of media firestorm in Taiwan at all?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT    67  (incumbant)
DPP    33

The DPP candidate is an aborigine and totally underperformed.  I thought she would be able to pick up some of the normally very pro-KMT aborigine votes.  I guess not.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

KMT    62  (incumbant)
DPP    38

The DPP candidate is the MP here (only because the very pro-KMT aborigine vote does not for in legislative races but for a set of aborigine seats) and has run for this position for years.  He actually did a bit better than I expected

I think Yotaka's drunk driving charge is problem.

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

Academic fraud is, likely, far more common than most people expect it to be. Politicians probably just as likely to do it as the rest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

Academic fraud is, likely, far more common than most people expect it to be. Politicians probably just as likely to do it as the rest.

In my view, they should set up a different type of degree that these active politicians can get, sort of like the Part-time MBA vs the regular MBA.  The reality is that people who are active politicians cannot possibly have the time to do research and write a master's thesis while doing a full-time job as a politician.  They should accept that and have a degree that takes less time and effort to make it even possible.

That sounds like a solid idea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Its official, Lai enters the race for DPP Chairperson.  Tsai, your move.

The Go game continues.