Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4538957-putin-ukraine-buffer-zone-election-navalny/

Russians will annex Kharkov?

Putin spoke at a press conference late Sunday after he won election for a fifth term in a landslide election that Ukraine and Western nations have slammed as a rigged contest.

At the press event, the Russian president lamented that border regions are under attack from Ukraine. While he said Russians in the regions are “showing courage,” he discussed the possibility of a buffer zone to cement protections.

That would be bold. But Putin does feel quite confident about his chances of winning...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4538957-putin-ukraine-buffer-zone-election-navalny/

Russians will annex Kharkov?

Putin spoke at a press conference late Sunday after he won election for a fifth term in a landslide election that Ukraine and Western nations have slammed as a rigged contest.

At the press event, the Russian president lamented that border regions are under attack from Ukraine. While he said Russians in the regions are “showing courage,” he discussed the possibility of a buffer zone to cement protections.

That would be bold. But Putin does feel quite confident about his chances of winning...

Simple answer, no. Firstly because “Kharkov” doesn’t exist. Secondly, Kharkiv survived the onslaught of 22; its a much larger city than Bakhmut and avdiivka where Putin lost tens of thousands of Zetnik scumbag soldiers.

As much as Putin’s personal c*cks#cker (woody) wishes for his master to win, Putin will be in a body bag or roasting with Stalin in the deepest circle of hell while Ukraine still stands

Your linguistic snobbery notwithstanding, it's perfectly in line with what we know about Putin's attitude for him to consider annexing Kharkiv if he thinks he can get away with it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4538957-putin-ukraine-buffer-zone-election-navalny/

Russians will annex Kharkov?

Putin spoke at a press conference late Sunday after he won election for a fifth term in a landslide election that Ukraine and Western nations have slammed as a rigged contest.

At the press event, the Russian president lamented that border regions are under attack from Ukraine. While he said Russians in the regions are “showing courage,” he discussed the possibility of a buffer zone to cement protections.

That would be bold. But Putin does feel quite confident about his chances of winning...

Simple answer, no. Firstly because “Kharkov” doesn’t exist. Secondly, Kharkiv survived the onslaught of 22; its a much larger city than Bakhmut and avdiivka where Putin lost tens of thousands of Zetnik scumbag soldiers.

As much as Putin’s personal c*cks#cker (woody) wishes for his master to win, Putin will be in a body bag or roasting with Stalin in the deepest circle of hell while Ukraine still stands

Your linguistic snobbery notwithstanding, it's perfectly in line with what we know about Putin's attitude for him to consider annexing Kharkiv if he thinks he can get away with it.

Annex it with what? He couldn’t get the city in the initial blitz almost his entire military is now in the Donbas

Such facts are unlikely to be a certain bar to Putin, at least in his mind. All he needs is enough of the oblast to be able to claim it as his own and he can stage another sham referendum and formally claim it as territory of the Russian Federation.
Of course, can and will are two different things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lindsey Graham hoping to break the Ukraine logjam with the mobilization bill

Lindsey Graham doing something good for once.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4538957-putin-ukraine-buffer-zone-election-navalny/

Russians will annex Kharkov?

Putin spoke at a press conference late Sunday after he won election for a fifth term in a landslide election that Ukraine and Western nations have slammed as a rigged contest.

At the press event, the Russian president lamented that border regions are under attack from Ukraine. While he said Russians in the regions are “showing courage,” he discussed the possibility of a buffer zone to cement protections.

That would be bold. But Putin does feel quite confident about his chances of winning...

Maybe the recent modest Russian advances have made him overconfident.

Again.

That's pretty much what I feel is likeliest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems Russians captured Ivanivske which is to the West of Bakhmut

This makes Bakhmut more secure for Russia, not that Bakhmut was about to be conquered again by the Ukrainians...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It appears Ukraine is not listening to the Biden administration's idiotic request that it stop targeting Russian refineries

Plainly, as jaichind put it in other words, why should Ukraine stop? There's no strong enough case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-security-council-secretary-dismissed-says-presidential-decree-2024-03-26/

"Ukraine replaces security council secretary as war drags on"

Zelensky fires Danilov

I wonder what sparked this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1773019812223991864?s=20
The drones airstikes work lol

Indeed they do.
Ukraine shouldn't stop.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Forbes May 2023
[image]

vs
Forbes March 2024
[image]

As Hindsight has noted the media narrative surrounding this war has been basically schizophrenic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This page has 17 posts on it and 11 of them are jaichind.

He never responds to anything anyone else is saying in the thread, and nobody ever responds to him.  There's no contribution to the discourse.  It's just taking up space -- a lot of space.

I'm assuming 90% of the forum has him on ignore at this point.  Because it's just spam.  Every single day a flood of posts "Ukraine is doomed!  Soldiers are fleeing!  Europeans in shambles!  Russia's economy is booming!  War production is off the charts!"  and it's been like this for over a year now.

It makes it difficult to have a real discussion in this thread.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?

And in general, why do the mods allow megathreads like this one to be taken over by one guy just dumping his RSS feed every single day?  This is far from the first time this has happened.

Funny enough because he barley responds to anyone he never really explains how despite as you said his year long “Ukraine is doomed” spam dump that the front lines barley move? It’s kinda hard to reconcile his “Ukraine military is falling apart and Russia’s mic is booming” with the daily frontline reports of “Russia monke runs at small village in the Donbas and losses 25 tanks and armored vehicles for no gains”

This is incredibly misleading, I would ask you to find a single post where he says the Ukrainian army is collapsing or on the verge of collapse?

He has been pretty clear in multiple posts that he views this war, materially not morally, as similar to Union vs CSA.  In terms of relative demographic and industrial capacity that’s pretty close to spot on with the exception, of course, that Ukraine is not successfully blockaded and is receiving major material support from the West.  Still a nearly 1-4 demographic and 1-8 economic deficit will be very hard to overcome for Ukraine in the long term. 

These types of wars of attrition over the past few hundred years generally follow the pattern of the weaker yet pluckier side winning some major but not decisive victories prior to the stronger side mobilizing its full resources and eventually forcing the military collapse of the weaker side.  You could argue wars from Napoleonic to US Civil to WW 1/2 fitting that pattern.

Remains to be seen if that’s what happens here, political factors could get in the way,but certainly not an unreasonable expectation if Russia is fully committed to victory.

It's also just his general posting style. See the India elections thread as well . He probably just checks the news once an hour and posts an update. Maybe the mods could force him to limit his posts to maybe one or two per day per thread but I think thats just dumb.

Well said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/04/04/majority-of-eu-voters-in-favour-of-ukraine-joining-the-eu-exclusive-ipsoseuronews-poll-fin

"Majority of EU voters in favour of Ukraine joining the EU, exclusive IPSOS/Euronews poll finds"

Poll on Ukraine joining EU

For/Against   45/35

Finland          68/13
Portugal        68/15
Spain            68/21
Sweden         58/15
Poland          56/26  (pretty good numbers for Ukraine given recent issues with farm products)
Denmark      55/21
Romania       54/40
Netherlands  42/32
Italy             41/33
Belgium        40/37
Germany      40/41
Greece         38/43
Austria         34/50
France          32/44
Bulgaria        31/49
Slovakia        24/46
Hunhary        18/54

It doesn't look particularly likely for Ukraine to get EU membership if it can't overcome this hostility to the idea in Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary.
The numbers are better than expected in Iberia.
Netherlands has exact same net margin as the EU as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/04/04/majority-of-eu-voters-in-favour-of-ukraine-joining-the-eu-exclusive-ipsoseuronews-poll-fin

"Majority of EU voters in favour of Ukraine joining the EU, exclusive IPSOS/Euronews poll finds"

Poll on Ukraine joining EU

For/Against   45/35

Finland          68/13
Portugal        68/15
Spain            68/21
Sweden         58/15
Poland          56/26  (pretty good numbers for Ukraine given recent issues with farm products)
Denmark      55/21
Romania       54/40
Netherlands  42/32
Italy             41/33
Belgium        40/37
Germany      40/41
Greece         38/43
Austria         34/50
France          32/44
Bulgaria        31/49
Slovakia        24/46
Hunhary        18/54

It doesn't look particularly likely for Ukraine to get EU membership if it can't overcome this hostility to the idea in Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary.
The numbers are better than expected in Iberia.
Netherlands has exact same net margin as the EU as a whole.

Forget those 3 countries, look at the Franco-German Alliance.

Oh yeah the polling there isn't good for Ukraine either. I meant more that there's always going to be someone who is going to be willing to consider vetoing entry.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It does seem that Putin's manpower issues have declined significantly...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It does seem that Putin's manpower issues have declined significantly...

From ISW

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2024

The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.

ISW seems to admit whatever losses the Russians are suffering they can be replaced.

Yeah, that was on my mind.
Ukraine needs more recruitment to keep up imo.
Whether it can is another issue completely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries continue to effect the Russian economy:

"Diesel loadings from #Russia's three major ports on Black and Baltic Seas, including some volumes originating in Belarus, are set to fall to ~2.29m tons in April. That equates to just over 569k b/d, down 21% vs actual daily exports from same ports in March"

https://twitter.com/olyatanas/status/1775127939002081637?s=20

From Bloomberg:

Russia Oil Refining Recovers in Early April as Repairs Gain Pace

Russia’s refineries processed more crude in the first days of April as some of the nation’s major plants restored operations halted by Ukrainian drone attacks.

The impact of the drone strikes on Russian crude processing is diminishing because most of the affected facilities have been able to repair damaged equipment, partly or completely restoring capacity. Some other plants have also increased their throughput to compensate for the damaged facilities, ensuring domestic fuel demand is met.

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

Not too surprising if true. These are huge facilities and a couple drones hitting the right spots can cause a lot of disruption, but if you want to take the entire plant offline for an extended period, that is something you would want to use a large number of missiles or airstrikes for.

The Ukrainian strategy really amounts to Kiev putting its money where its mouth is.
However Ukraine's capabilities to take things where it needs to flat-out turn the tide? More uncertain at best.
Kissinger did say that you need to deal with the world as it is, not the world as it should be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-run-out-air-defence-missiles-if-russia-keeps-up-bombardment-2024-04-06/

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles"

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

Just to be clear.  The USA has around 50 batteries.  So what Zelensky wants is half the Patriot systems that the USA has.

Honestly I’m ok with that. We aren’t putting it to good use here it might as well go to someone who needs it.

It could be a good decision.
It would have to be deliberated about first.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also Zelensky request isn’t unreasonable considering a) Ukraine’s size and b) this is not immediate but going to be a 5+ year program

It would be good for our military industrial complex which keeps millions employed. So that's a point in its favor.
A king must try to protect his vassals and if we want Ukrainian loyalty we should consider showing Ukraine concrete signs we will help them protect themselves. Otherwise we don't have the moral right to demand it. Loyalty is earned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.barrons.com/news/kyiv-scraps-demobilisation-clause-in-draft-law-causing-anger-bc3aadbc

"Kyiv Scraps Demobilisation Clause In Draft Law, Causing Anger"

Part of Ukraine's plan to mobilize is to allow some of those serving to be demobilized.  It seems that the plan is out the window mostly due to pressure from Syrsky not to do this.

This doesn't speak to Ukraine having much operational flexibility in regards to their manpower.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

Until the French army arrive….

We shall see indirectly how much Russia wants Africa by how much France helps Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine Says Kyiv Region’s Largest Power Plant Destroyed

(Bloomberg) -- The largest power plant in the region surrounding the Ukrainian capital was destroyed in a Russian missile attack.
Six missiles hit the Trypilska plant south of Kyiv Thursday morning, according to a person familiar familiar with the strike. The attack set the facility owned by state-run electricity and heat producer Centrenergo ablaze, the person said on condition of anonymity.
Over the past month, Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine’s power infrastructure as Kyiv struggles with a shortage of ammunition and manpower. A large-scale overnight missile and drone attack targeted power infrastructure and underground gas storage in five regions across Ukraine.

Yet another reason why Russian oil infrastructure is fair game for Ukraine...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the first time since the beginning of the war, I now think that Ukraine will lose and decisively at that. This is incredibly sad. The only way for them to win at this point would be for western countries to send troops on the ground and that's absolutely not happening.

What has caused this shift in opinion and why?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Given that the Iranian and North Koreans are basically helping for free in propping up the supplies of the Russian army and in a lot of cases being labor and advising auxiliaries and that this is turning the tides of the war, Russia basically has a blank cheque in wasting as much equipment on the field. They can do this because Xi Jinping has basically given up in trying to exert pressure over Russia and are helping bankroll the Russian economy for what amounts to peanuts.

Russia have also in this war been using up previous-generation Soviet equipment inventory of which they had a ton.

For that matter, doesn't Ukraine have some of those stocks as well? Or had.