Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Least counted provinces right now:

Santa Catarina (9%): 69 B 31 L
Alagoas (10%): L 64 B 36
Rio (12%): B 56.5 L 43.5
SP (15.6%): B 58 L 42
Pernambuco (17%): L 71 B 29
MG (20%): B 50 L 50

A lot of outstanding vote from the Southeastern provinces for some reason. I'd still rather be Lula than Bolsonaro but this is looking closer than a naive extrapolation from the 1st round would suggest.

Alagoas and Pernambuco are among the biggest states in the Nordeste. Santa Catarina is in the Sud. MG, Rio, and SP are more Central.
The picture here is not necessarily the way you see it. If anything, there could even be further upside for Lula here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lula breaks 49.5.

lead change should happen soon.

Probably around 48 or 49% of the vote counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wrong; the urban areas report later. Like red mirage but disappears faster.

Brazil is Virginia. Honestly, I'm shocked that rains in Northeast Brazil didn't depress Lula's turnout more and give Bolsonaro victory, but there we are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is Roraima so strong for Bolsonaro while all the states around it are more left-leaning?

Iirc, a lot of Venezuelans ended up there, and that moved the state significantly to the right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obrigado, Brasil! Amor desde America!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone who's more knowledgeable about Brazilian politics than me give a summary of how the Dobbs decision affected the results? I assume it had a big impact on PUT turnout, sure, but is it likely that moderate "Never Bolsonaro" suburban voters swung to Lula because of this? I'm working on a piece for CNN.

Pro-choice moderates swung behind Lula in the wake of the Supreme Court, filled with Bolsonaro appointees that were inclined to outlaw abortion. That's what it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) re-elected Governor of Rio Grande do Sul.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The divide in Amazonas between Manaus and the rest of the state remains huge. Bolsonaro only won 3 municipalities out of about three dozen. However, he's at 61% in Manaus. It seems that about 90% of his votes in Amazonas are coming from Manaus alone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is only up 5% in the city of Rio, and Lula is up 7% in the city of Sao Paulo.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The divide in Amazonas between Manaus and the rest of the state remains huge. Bolsonaro only won 3 municipalities out of about three dozen. However, he's at 61% in Manaus. It seems that about 90% of his votes in Amazonas are coming from Manaus alone.

Because Manaus is a city and the rest of the state is where people are having their ancestral homelands burned down.

The uncontacted tribes can't be that much of the vote. I'd assume that most of that comes down to a class vote - Manaus has always been sizably richer than Amazonas overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is only up 5% in Rio, and Lula is up 7% in Sao Paulo.

the state or city?

I mean the city (in both cases). Apologies for not being specific enough.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's go Squid!

I un-recommended this just so that I could recommend it twice.
(btw, Lula is "squid" in portuguese. I suspect you know that, just saying that for the benefit of everyone else)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's go Squid!

I un-recommended this just so that I could recommend it twice.
(btw, Lula is "squid" in portuguese. I suspect you know that, just saying that for the benefit of everyone else)

I only found that out because my Google translator kept changing Lula to Squid when I went on the Globo site haha.

Same.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

Very big, PSDB's last hope for being a relevant party now is Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul and, to a lesser extent, Raquel Lyra and Riedel in Pernambuco and Mato Grosso do Sul respectively. The party has truly been reduced to the status of being just one more centrão party.

It seems like undermining the PSDB stronghold on Sao Paulo could be one of Bolsonaro's major legacies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) wins in Bahia. This is the most PT-friendly big state in Brazil, so this is a big win for them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) wins in Bahia. This is the most PT-friendly big state in Brazil, so this is a big win for them.

Still, it was close.

For sure. If it wasn't this close, it would have been called a long time ago.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lula: 59,563,912 (50.83%)
Bolsonaro: 57,627,462 (49.17%)
98.81% REPORTING

GLOBO CALLS IT

Obrigado, Rede Globo!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PSDB gained the vice-presidency and lost Sao Paulo.
A mixed bag for the tucanos, isn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PSDB gained the vice-presidency and lost Sao Paulo.
A mixed bag for the tucanos, isn't it?

He's no longer from the PSDB. He's now a PSB member.

Oh.
Scratch that, then. The PSB is a big winner in these elections in any case.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have been busy all afternoon and early evening and haven't been available to watch this nearly as closely as the first round, but very glad and relieved to see Lula projected to win the runoff. Hoping there is enough internal support within the military and other key sectors of the government to prevent a self-coup by Bolsonaro.

You can probably rest easy. The 1964 coup occurred in a context where the US was strongly concerned about communism. Biden would very readily oppose any coup from Bolsonaro and the military already said there won't be a coup.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1586852959937302528

Jeez, 433K likes in 16 minutes.

"I love democracy!" - Me, you, Lula, Brazilian voters (and Emperor Palpatine)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lula is now giving his victory speech.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Brazilian people are truly fortunate to have such a dedicated public servant and friend of the working people leading them. Many countries could only dream of a leader of his caliber.

As Gustavo Petro said - Viva Lula.