VA Early Voting #s

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWN IN NOOOOOOVAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thank goodness for memes, since to me, they're the only bearable thing about these threads right now.

"I must laugh, because if I cannot laugh I will die" - Abraham Lincoln

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

That's what it is looking like.  Additional results will trickle in and today will probably net around 100k additional votes.  Plus you have mail in ballots that will be dropped off on Election Day or come in over the next few days.

How much of the total electorate might vote early this time? 20%?

Looking like turnout will be about 20% of registered voters.  Probably 35-40% of total turnout this year.

I assume that's a historic high?

Potentially.  But we've never had no excuse early voting in a Gov. race before.  So that could be why.

For sure.
I wonder if the large number of early voters this time might get attention from national media.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it clearly shows that early voting does inspire more turnout.  If there was no early voting period I'd be more worried about this election. 

What do you see happening in the House of Delegates?

I'm not following that as closely.  I could see a couple of seats flipping each way canceling each other out.  The one area I think the GOP could over perform is Virginia Beach.  I think Dems will hold fine in NOVA/Richmond. 

I don't know if there are any vulnerable seats in the VA Beach area.  If so, that's probably where the GOP makes gains, if not in maybe one of the Richmond area seats as well. 

Ah. Thanks for responding!
The McAuliffe-Youngkin race is really stealing the oxygen. Lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More to the last point.  Fairfax is actually at a higher turnout rate among REGISTERED voters but lower when compared to 2017.  So you can see Fairfax turned out much more in 2017 than Prince William, relatively speaking.  If Dems can keep up the momentum in Prince William that will be a hidden trove of votes that will counteract any rural surge.

Prince William County is underrated in its electoral importance, imo. It is a Dem stronghold that less swingy voters than Fairfax. If Ds can get good results there that would help them immensely if Youngkin does better than expected.

Yes they need turnout there.  The turnout could vary a lot.  So it's good they are banking a lot of votes there right now.  With these kinds of numbers I don't see how Youngkin pulls this off.  I am also not seeing an enthusiasm gap with Prince William numbers like this right now.

Isn't the southeastern share of PWC incredibly Democratic, very non-white, and growing very fast? That area in particular might be inclined to less turnout in normal conditions.

Yes.  Well all of NOVA is very mixed, but I believe PWC has a high African American concentration around there.  So you get very skewed Dem pockets in PWC.  That's why precinct results matter, moreso than in say Fairfax where there are definitely also extreme pockets of Dem strength but not as skewed. 

PWC, unlike Fairfax, has large contigous sections of Trump-voting precincts, with Dem areas in the southeast and Dem areas around Manassas outvoting R-voting territory elsewhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Youngkin wins this election, it will be the umpteenth example of a strong Democratic turnout in early votes meaning nothing about the results of the election. I stopped drawing any encouragement from this after NC/FL in 2016.

Except, the entire basis of Youngkin's chances is on Dems not being enthusiastic about voting and these numbers are disproving that.  We are probably looking at higher turnout than 2017...

There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers. I'm not predicting that will happen - I have no idea what's going to happen in this race - but the record of the last several years is that early votes simply can not predict the outcome when there is such a differential between who votes on election day and who doesn't.

To say "There are a number of ways that Youngkin still wins even if core Democratic voters turn out in high numbers" is fair, but it's important to note that Rs also pushed early voting this time, from what I've heard. The gap is likely to be much smaller than in 2020.