USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

why did AZ and HI miss by so much?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The newest Twitter rumor is that the apportionment count will be out Monday afternoon:

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1385939017619943427

Twitter rumor, I know, but would be nice if this panned out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the longest current streaks for losing a seat in reapportionment?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Massive overperformances in Hasidic areas:

Kiryas Joel, New York

20,365 - 2010 Final Census Result
28,426 - 2020 Original Estimate
32,954 - 2020 Final Census Result

New Square, New York

6,944 - 2010 Final Census Result
8,956 - 2020 Original Estimate
9,679 - 2020 Final Census Result

Lakewood Township, New Jersey

92,799 - 2010 Final Census Result
107,169 - 2020 Original Estimate
135,158 - 2020 Final Census Result

I guess it's obvious who New York has to credit for coming so close to keeping all its CDs...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

I have it at 63k,  170k people would be pretty much almost everything outside the Reno/Carson City area.

Oh, I miscalculated badly, lol.
My math was on basis of 750,000-800,000 for a CD/10=75,000-80,000, then I doubled it.
I am going to take your word for it and assume you got it right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

Bizarre to think that a majority of the US land area is in counties or county-equivalents that lost population from 2010 to 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welp so much for that post recession rural come back.

Bizarre to think that a majority of the US land area is in counties or county-equivalents that lost population from 2010 to 2020.

I want to say that's been the case since the 1940 census after the Dust Bowl?  Or if not that early, since the 1990 post-Farm Crisis census?

Has rural America ever had such a throroughly bad census before, though?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

9-0 TN isn't possible. Even though Steve Cohen is white, his district is over 60% black and VRA protected.

Attempting 9-0 TN is a dummymander, even more so because of trends in the Ds favor in some heavily R suburbs of Memphis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interactives:

County:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/94-2020-census-county-population-change-map


County Sub (still somewhat experimental. There are a few issues with the data set):
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/95-2020-census-county-sub-population-change-map

Have you done a comparison of 2020 estimate to 2020 Census?

Yes. Click Menu-->vs Apr 20 Estimate (linear backdated July Estimate) or vs July 20 Estimate on the interactive. The County Sub version includes fewer geos because county subs outside the Northeast and Midwest are generally not included in the PEP estimates dataset.

see also: Metro Atlanta

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Island Area Populations were released yesterday:

153,835 (-3.5% decadal decrease) - GUAM
87,146 (-18.1% decadal decrease) - US VIRGIN ISLANDS
49,710 (-10.5% decadal decrease) - AMERICAN SAMOA
47,329 (-12.2% decadal decrease) - NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

All 4 declining? Has this happened before?