Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If anyone is wondering how Republican Rockingham county is(at least ancestrally as although it is still very Republican it isn't the reddest)

It didn't even vote for Warner in 08.

Rockingham County is so Republican, it's voted Democratic for president only once since 1936 - in 1964 - and it only voted Dem by a margin of 50 votes then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Youngkin favorables are more important than the Biden ones. They show that he's enjoying net popularity among the electorate as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd like to see McAuliffe favorables - have they mentioned holding them back until the next hour?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We still don't know if these numbers are from just Election Day voters or all voters... if this is Election Day voters I am feeling pretty great about Terry's chances

They said on air they include vote by mail, in-person early vote and election day.

How can they know the proportions to weigh the sample by? We have no idea what percentage of the electorate voted in which way, so how can they claim to have a representative sample?

Yes, it looks possible that balancing issues could have severely hampered this poll's numbers. We shall see in due time if it has.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

This thread probably has like 400 posts with the word Trumpkin

That's probably lowballing it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

Ouch.
Yeah, bin it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

Ouch.
Yeah, bin it.

Told y'all. Maybe Youngkin has a big win, but either way don't pay attention to early exit polls.

Well, they are new info, Atlas posters take to them like cats do to catnip.
But an incomplete exit poll that...has 57% gun owners (if there was any state that would skew things, it would be VA), 46-46 2020 recalled vote (in a Biden+10 state), and a *73%* white sample, it's just not good to base literally anything on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

Ouch.
Yeah, bin it.

People are embarrassed, they voted for Joe 

Or these are E-day voters. And as expected, much more R than early voting.

The most logical assumption for which one can explain these sorts of results is that the initial exits oversample R-leaning E-day voters and undersample early voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have a question for all of you. What's one county/city you're going to be watching incredibly closely? For me, that would be Radford.

I think I'd go with Prince William County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

is there even a place called "nassau" in virginia?

Just googling Nassau VA and Nassau Count VA, it actually doesn’t appear to exist.

Yeah, it doesn't exist.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeahhhhh
https://twitter.com/ScottEidler/status/1455651964889575430?s=20

This is talking about local elections in New York State. Rs did do extremely well in NY's 2009 local elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mods gonna have a fun one tonight for an off-year

I cannot think of a worse job than being a moderator of the Atlas forums. They work way too hard for no pay and essentially no recognition.

There is a reason I use the phrase "Thank you for your hard work" when talking to mods now.
It's such a thankless job.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have a question for all of you. What's one county/city you're going to be watching incredibly closely? For me, that would be Radford.

I think I'd go with Prince William County.

I'm assuming you picked that to see the margins. I picked Radford as I think it's an underrated bellwether. Montgomery County is another one.

Prince William County will be very key for margins and turnout. If Ds can't get the turnout they need there and/or Youngkin does better than I expect among minorities, it'll be hugely significant. Loudoun on the other hand, while important, isn't really as singularly relevant, even if it is symbolically the place that the election was most hardly fought.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prince William is not voting for Trumpkin.

The Jurisdiction in nova to look at is Manassas and Manassas Park.

i am also asking kindly that people are civil in my thread. It reflects bad off me if this thread is a dumspter fire.

It's actually been surprisingly civil how people have been on Election Night so far.  Maybe I'm jinxing it but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't pleasantly surprised.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread is a collection of indecipherable screeching noises

"All the sound and fury, signifying nothing" - Shakespeare

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prince William is not voting for Trumpkin.

The Jurisdiction in nova to look at is Manassas and Manassas Park.

i am also asking kindly that people are civil in my thread. It reflects bad off me if this thread is a dumspter fire.

It's actually been surprisingly civil how people have been on Election Night so far.  Maybe I'm jinxing it but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't pleasantly surprised.

I’ve had to delete far fewer posts than I expected personally but I can’t speak for other moderators.

That's good to hear.
Keep up the good work!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Half an hour till polls close.
I wonder if Atlas can behave itself in the meantime.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

538 live blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/ (apologies if already posted, I was away for an hour and came back to >10 new pages which I'm not going to read).

Thanks for the link!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was gone for an hour, what is new

Youngkin won Nassau County, NY.

Youngkin also won the Buffalo mayoralty.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was gone for an hour, what is new

Youngkin won Nassau County, NY.

Youngkin also won the Buffalo mayoralty.

Write Down Glenn Youngkin

*Write In Glenn Youngkin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was gone for an hour, what is new

Youngkin won Nassau County, NY.

Youngkin also won the Buffalo mayoralty.

Write Down Glenn Youngkin

*Write In Glenn Youngkin

I wonder if we’ll see any write-ins for Young Kim?

ok ok
that's an A+ displayname if I've ever seen one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am declaring victory. I have been elected Governor of Virginia.

I demand a recount.

#StoptheRoboSteal

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who needs primetime comedians when you have Atlas?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am declaring victory. I have been elected Governor of Virginia.

RoboKing RoboKing RoboKing!!!

It was all those annoying robocalls that got him elected.