Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UTSD?

Yeah, I didn't get that part either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Warnock apparently compared Benjamin Netanyahu to George Wallace.

After a Senate candidate in Georgia backtracked on his harsh criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians Tuesday, another clip surfaced in which he used controversial language to describe Mideast tensions.


In a 2016 sermon, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a two-state solution for peace in the region.

He called Netanyahu’s stance “tantamount to saying occupation today, occupation tomorrow, occupation forever,” a line similar to former Alabama Gov. George Wallace’s call for, “segregation now, segregation tomorrow and segregation forever.”


He went on to argue that there could be no democracy in Israel without a two-state solution because of the disenfranchisement of Arab voters.

Opposition to Bibi is a partisan Dem thing. And this was due at least partially to conspicious choices from Bibi himself (anyone remember the speech he gave before Congress, cutting out Obama and co)?
This is hardly even news.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

thank god Loeffler got to the runoff. She'd likely perform weaker than Collins would have.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's mind boggling that Loeffler is running only 0.2% behind Perdue. Perdue is atleast a normal Republican, Loeffler on the other hand is total garbage and just an all around awful candidate with no redeeming qualities.

It would be mind-boggling anywhere but hyper-polarized, wave-proof Georgia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NATE SILVER
JAN. 5, 8:05 PM
Micah, I guess I’d say that’s a good reflection of how we’ll interpret the data if Republicans win. But there are other interpretations, like that their turnout is in fact depressed. And if blue counties are having big Election Day turnout, too, like we’re seeing in DeKalb County, Republicans might get the Election Day turnout they want but not win by the margins they want.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Between the extended vote count, lawsuits, media attention, Trump’s personal threats, and nonstop ads I’m sure Georgia election officials wanted to hasten tonight’s vote count and be done with the last two months haha

Agreed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SARAH FROSTENSON
JAN. 5, 8:10 PM
This isn’t entirely related to your question about Election Day voting, Micah, but I found it rather mind-boggling, so here we go. This was from ABC News as of 6:00 p.m. ET tonight, but the total early vote included 123,079 people who did not participate in November’s general election, which is 35,000 more votes than the margin that separated Perdue and Ossoff the first time around.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean these voters will break Democratic — but so far, the early vote has been quite good for Democrats. I really want to get a better sense of what Election Day turnout looks like and how that complicates this picture. But in the meantime, who are these voters who voted in the runoff but not in the general?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Democrats win I’m gonna change my name to “Progressive Manchinite” and my state to West Virginia.

Echt heel erg bedankt. Manchin the great.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
JAN. 5, 9:07 PM
Rockdale County, a Democratic stronghold southeast of Atlanta, has now counted 98 percent of its expected vote. Warnock and Ossoff both lead there by 45 points after Biden won it by 41 points in November. If that pattern holds in other metro Atlanta counties, that would be very good for Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

Whichever one is closer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Loeffler has to be the weakest candidate run in a competitive state in a long ass time.

Tbh, I disagree. If Purdue couldn't win, then her loss isn't a Loeffler problem, it's a Georgia problem.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More than one Kelly in that image...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY
JAN. 5, 10:00 PM
And while incumbency isn’t necessarily worth as much as it once was, Perdue won in 2014, so he’s been elected in his own right. Loeffler is an appointed incumbent, which, practically speaking, means the race is functioning as an open seat.

Another point against the "Loeffler is uniquely weak" argument.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
JAN. 5, 11:18 PM
Let’s do a little thought exercise. There are about 171,000 early votes left to count in DeKalb. Let’s say Ossoff and Warnock win them 143,000 to 28,000, which would mirror how Biden did in November among DeKalb early voters. That would perfectly erase Perdue’s current 115,000-vote lead and turn Loeffler’s current 82,000-vote lead into a 33,000-vote Warnock lead. And that’s without counting the remaining ballots in Cobb, Chatham and other outstanding counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How quickly do the calls for McConnell's head come from within his caucus? The $2k stimulus I think was the final straw in this election.

It's going to be muddled though whether this is why they lost or if it's Trump being categorically insane. Neither helped, but idk if 2k checks would have been enough

Almost certainly wouldn't have. Georgia's Dem trend has been brutal to the GOP's chances, and GA is hyper-polarized.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Max Cleland's revenge.

At long last.

God bless the good ol name of Max Cleland.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1346682809042296832

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I do think Rs start off as favorites for GA-SEN and GOV in 2022 but I suspect those will be the last statewide R wins (if they win at all) for a long time in Georgia. Weird to think that Ossoff may well be starting a lifer senate career.

Why would you think that.

I mean...because it’s a Biden midterm lol? I get that GA is trending D but I suspect the national environment will be more of a shift than that over the next two years. Plus Trumpism probably sped up the trend to some extent. I’m not saying Ds can’t win but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be favored in a vacuum.

It was "a Bush midterm" when Max Cleland was defeated. Don't buy into nonsense.

GA doesn't tend to move too much on basis of midterm vs presidential year. GA is wave-proof and hyper-polarized.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When does Ossoff take the statewide lead?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ugh hopefully Manchin uses his power to stop the left wing agenda and force a more centrist agenda to pass

Biden's agenda is already fairly centrist. It's like some Republicans forget who won the primaries.

Yah centrist compared to how far left the Democratic Party has become but it’s still much to the left of the Democratic Party circa 2015

2015? I really don't get the sense the party has moved all that left since then. Bernie lost twice, "The Squad" doesn't have any power within the party. The leftists may be loud but they are hardly pulling the strings of the party.

Yeah OSR doesn't have to worry. The policies of supporting the genocide in Yemen and letting people die because they can't afford insulin are safe with you.

On the night we win the Senate you really want to talk about how a Democrat Senate is just as bad as a Republican Senate.

Absolutely not. Alben Barkley was saying s***t that deserved a response.

He might just be an asshole and make me feel bad I ever defended him.

Alben Barkley is right about the true significance of the squad and the Left of the party. Sorry to say it, but it's true. If anything, I admire his brutal honesty.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ugh hopefully Manchin uses his power to stop the left wing agenda and force a more centrist agenda to pass

Biden's agenda is already fairly centrist. It's like some Republicans forget who won the primaries.

Yah centrist compared to how far left the Democratic Party has become but it’s still much to the left of the Democratic Party circa 2015

2015? I really don't get the sense the party has moved all that left since then. Bernie lost twice, "The Squad" doesn't have any power within the party. The leftists may be loud but they are hardly pulling the strings of the party.

Yeah OSR doesn't have to worry. The policies of supporting the genocide in Yemen and letting people die because they can't afford insulin are safe with you.

On the night we win the Senate you really want to talk about how a Democrat Senate is just as bad as a Republican Senate.

Absolutely not. Alben Barkley was saying s***t that deserved a response.

He might just be an asshole and make me feel bad I ever defended him.

Alben Barkley is right about the true significance of the squad and the Left of the party. Sorry to say it, but it's true. If anything, I admire his brutal honesty.

But it's not brutal honesty. It was a photo that right wing media played up. No different then if Ossoff and Warnock get called "the brothers" since they referenced that and it gets manipulated in a racist way because of one comment made off hand.

I don't have a horse in this besides the "how much power does the left have" question. It's fair to say that the actual influence that folks like AOC have is indeed exagerrated and the perception that they have this level of power is due to the media giving them a huge megaphone.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Red Georgia is now Blue Georgia !!!

good meme, isn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PERRY BACON JR.
JAN. 6, 12:39 AM
Warnock mentions Morehouse College, John Lewis and Martin Luther King Jr. at the top of his speech. “Georgia, I am honored,” he says, basically declaring victory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Red Georgia is now Blue Georgia !!!

where is griffins gif when we need it the most?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like both Schumer and Pelosi. If I have to pick between the two I guess Pelosi wins out.