2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would you say that, if CA stands pat at 53, that the rural areas in the state still effectively lost half a CD?

Yep, even under 52 seats CA03 is going to turn out of the Jefferson Area and move towards the bay. The north and backcountry are shrinking (worse after the fires) and in a large state that is growing essentially even/slightly under the national average, that shrinkage is magnified.

so which area of the state is likeliest to "gain" a district under a 53-district arrangement? San Brenardino or Riverside county?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Should I consider my CA map perfected? y/n

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

bonus: here is as Asian a district you'll get while staying out of Arcadia and those Asian suburbs, and other hotspots for the Asian population in SoCal.
I like how painfully gerrymandered it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come you are all keeping the CA-21 gerrymander largely intact?

You have to have a district here that can elect a candidate of choice for the Latino community.

I made sure of that in the IE as well (I gave Torres and Aguilar majority-HCVAP seats as well). This is why I took Mono out of the Rural San Bernardino district and added Redlands to it.

It's not as necessary to do that in places that already elect Latinos. The Central Valley has never sent a Latino to Congress.

Valadao?

He's Portuguese, not Latino.

....

Really? You're going to try to create that distinction?

It is a point of contention as to whether Portuguese are Latino or not. Both sides have good arguments here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Speaking of Valadao, why didn’t Costa stay in his original district in 2012? It barely changed. Did he want a whiter seat because he didn’t want to face a primary challenge?

CA-16 is safer for Democrats.

If Costa had decided not to jump ship for CA-16, does that mean one less Central Valley seat for Rs throughout the 2010s?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Speaking of Valadao, why didn’t Costa stay in his original district in 2012? It barely changed. Did he want a whiter seat because he didn’t want to face a primary challenge?

CA-16 is safer for Democrats.

If Costa had decided not to jump ship for CA-16, does that mean one less Central Valley seat for Rs throughout the 2010s?

Not necessarily, as Costa has never been a particular strong performer in the area. In all likelihood, however, that would be the case.

Who do you think would run for and win CA-16?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Speaking of Valadao, why didn’t Costa stay in his original district in 2012? It barely changed. Did he want a whiter seat because he didn’t want to face a primary challenge?

CA-16 is safer for Democrats.

If Costa had decided not to jump ship for CA-16, does that mean one less Central Valley seat for Rs throughout the 2010s?

Not necessarily, as Costa has never been a particular strong performer in the area. In all likelihood, however, that would be the case.

Who do you think would run for and win CA-16?

Right now or back then?

in 2012, in case Costa runs in CA-21.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does the Central Valley have a large Azorean population (Nunes and Costa too)?

https://portuguese-american-journal.com/exhibit-azorean-farmers-in-californias-central-valley-community/
Yeah.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come you are all keeping the CA-21 gerrymander largely intact?

You have to have a district here that can elect a candidate of choice for the Latino community.

I made sure of that in the IE as well (I gave Torres and Aguilar majority-HCVAP seats as well). This is why I took Mono out of the Rural San Bernardino district and added Redlands to it.

It's not as necessary to do that in places that already elect Latinos. The Central Valley has never sent a Latino to Congress.

Valadao?

He's Portuguese, not Latino.

....

Really? You're going to try to create that distinction?

Uh, Latino usually indicates being from Latin America. Valadao's Family is from the Azores Islands. Very different.

Besides, it doesn’t matter if the district has elected a Latino representative or not. It’s never about the official’s ethnicity. It’s about the community being able to elect the candidate of their choice. Valadao wasn’t the Latino community’s choice; Cox is.

See also: SC-01 electing a black man, Tim Scott, does not mean it qualifies to be a black VRA seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That CA-11 is quite unique.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That CA-11 is quite unique.

Marin-San Francisco?

yeah.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That CA-11 is quite unique.

Marin-San Francisco?

yeah.

I just wanted to try something different.

Nothing wrong there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's Bakersfield doing in the rural San Bernardino district?

I don't like it much either. However, I really wanted to keep my Victor Valley/Eastern Sierra district on the far side of Cajon pass which made this a necessity. I could have it take in Palmdale/Lancaster instead, but then that forces me to do weird things with Santa Clarita and Ventura County.

A problem that I found is that minorities groups are moving out en masse to the Imperial Valley, flipping cities and making areas more viable to base access seats around. The more access seats in a region, the more a region ends up needing a white seat to relieve pressure. Kern+Desert Bernadino isn't the best pairing, but it allows you to make almost all of it's neighbors into some variety of Hispanic seat.

So it is a decent "white sink"*.
*=coined this term years ago to describe seats packing white people for various reasons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 1990s map was essentially a GOP gerrymander. However, since it was drawn by the court, there are some non-partisan elements involved, but by and large its purpose was to offer Republicans more opportunities than if Pete Wilson compromised with legislative Democrats.

My map does have a lot in common with this one, though. I always felt Burbank, Glendale, La Canada Flintridge, and Pasadena should go together, for example.

Ranchos Palos Verdes, the Beach Cities, and Torrance likewise are a natural grouping.

You can tell by how OC and Riverside are cracked to spread as many Republican votes around what the intentions here were, though.

Mine was influenced by the 1990s map, but with more majority-minority and access seats.

San Diego; see CA-47, CA-48, CA-49, and CA-50; At least I paired Imperial with Riverside:



Los Angeles; see CA-37:



High Desert; see CA-40:

What is the partisanship of your CA-51?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow California could actually end up losing two house seats: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/study-in-a-first-california-poised-to-lose-house-seats/

Prediction: the biggest losers from this would be Garamendi and Nunes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow California could actually end up losing two house seats: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/study-in-a-first-california-poised-to-lose-house-seats/

Prediction: the biggest losers from this would be Garamendi and Nunes.

The article says the Bay Area is the least likely area to lose a seat because of its growing population. It seems like it would be difficult to have both seats be lost from north of L.A. County without a vacuum pulling a seat north of the line.

In that case I guess LA County itself is poised to lose one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

option 2 looks better to me. Bacon-stripping northern California like that is kind of unideal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

thoughts on this arrangement?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

revised northern california

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

revised northern california

The Emerald Coast should not be connected to Shasta, Butte or anything East of that. Also El Dorado should be with Placer.

I can't oblige the former, but I can do the latter.
You also have the bulk of exurban Sacremento in one seat now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I'm switching to a 51 seat map. I don't need to make another 52-seat map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

revised northern california

The Emerald Coast should not be connected to Shasta, Butte or anything East of that. Also El Dorado should be with Placer.

I can't oblige the former, but I can do the latter.
You also have the bulk of exurban Sacremento in one seat now.

I don't really like the double county entrance of Sutter. I also don't think Chico belongs with Napa.

Would it be preferable to break up my current exurban Sacremento seat? One un-ideal district is quite possibly good to have if it means the seats around them are sufficiently better compared to if that was not the case. It's not as though the current CA-03 isn't already a leftovers district anyway...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

revised northern california

The Emerald Coast should not be connected to Shasta, Butte or anything East of that. Also El Dorado should be with Placer.

I can't oblige the former, but I can do the latter.
You also have the bulk of exurban Sacremento in one seat now.

I don't really like the double county entrance of Sutter. I also don't think Chico belongs with Napa.

Would it be preferable to break up my current exurban Sacremento seat? One un-ideal district is quite possibly good to have if it means the seats around them are sufficiently better compared to if that was not the case. It's not as though the current CA-03 isn't already a leftovers district anyway...

Yes. It would be better to break it up. Garamendi's district isn't viable anymore.

I suppose then you can place all of Butte County in the red district while making up for it with the rest of Sutter and as much of Placer as is needed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

revised northern california

The Emerald Coast should not be connected to Shasta, Butte or anything East of that. Also El Dorado should be with Placer.

I can't oblige the former, but I can do the latter.
You also have the bulk of exurban Sacremento in one seat now.

I don't really like the double county entrance of Sutter. I also don't think Chico belongs with Napa.

Would it be preferable to break up my current exurban Sacremento seat? One un-ideal district is quite possibly good to have if it means the seats around them are sufficiently better compared to if that was not the case. It's not as though the current CA-03 isn't already a leftovers district anyway...

Yes. It would be better to break it up. Garamendi's district isn't viable anymore.

I suppose then you can place all of Butte County in the red district while making up for it with the rest of Sutter and as much of Placer as is needed.

Maybe. What would that look like?

This, pretty much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's an out-of-the-box idea.
The Marin-Sonoma CD takes in Napa and then these areas get shifted into the Emerald Coast CD.