House districts with illegal racial gerrymanders

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No such districts exist as of right now. Unideal=/=illegal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No such districts exist as of right now. Unideal=/=illegal.

It could be argued that all three districts violate Section 2 of the VRA by limiting their opportunities to elect representatives of their choice.  In all three districts, a different line drawing could allow African Americans to elect additional representatives of their choice.

It is only illegal if the number of districts in question have not withstood legal challenges. Sure, a map with just one black seat in SC is not ideal and a map with 2 could be made. But just because 2 is legal and gives the blacks of South Carolina more representation doesn't mean 1 isn't legal. 0 black seats is what would be illegal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

This is conflating two separate things. It wasn't possible to draw 2 seats with a black majority in Louisiana, it was perfectly possible to draw 1 seat with a black majority and another where blacks would likely have been able to elect the candidate of their choice.

I'd also point out that AL-07 already gets within about 40 miles of Mobile. Sticking an arm out to grab it isn't absurd unless you think the VRA as a whole is absurd.

While I find it disgusting to rely on water contiguity to link the white Mobile CD after the black areas are pulled into the AA CD, something like this
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4ca1770-6166-4486-a258-1958e35d0913
is perfectly acceptable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

This is conflating two separate things. It wasn't possible to draw 2 seats with a black majority in Louisiana, it was perfectly possible to draw 1 seat with a black majority and another where blacks would likely have been able to elect the candidate of their choice.

I'd also point out that AL-07 already gets within about 40 miles of Mobile. Sticking an arm out to grab it isn't absurd unless you think the VRA as a whole is absurd.

While I find it disgusting to rely on water contiguity to link the white Mobile CD after the black areas are pulled into the AA CD, something like this
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4ca1770-6166-4486-a258-1958e35d0913
is perfectly acceptable.

How much higher could you get the black population in AL-07 if you pulled it out of Walker County, northern Tuscaloosa County and the Jefferson County fringes and instead sent AL-06 a little further east into the black-majority counties east of Selma?

I think that it would definitely be possible to get it into black-plurality territory.
Ok so after 20 minutes of work I got this:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c11be1f-13cf-4d32-b092-b2dda9305647

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

EDIT: Looks like two black-majority districts with that kind of split of Mobile were relatively easy to accomplish: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1b943e7-696c-4525-abf0-def4cf336478 - somewhat ugly, but not horrifically so.

I like the compactness of your arrangement, though the county splits are...okay I guess. I am skeptical they could have been avoided.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I was drawing a map in SC for middle and low country.
Green is Safe R
Blue is Trump +2 while red is CLinton +4.5(Clyburns district)
Purple is Clinton +8 and only won Tim Scott lost in 2016.

All COI's except maybe the Charleston COI is kept together but I made 2 coastal districts in exchange for that and it helped preserve the black belt seat. This is a no VRA map and I bet one could offer this map to Clyburn and he wouldn't take it.

Looks nice.
But you split Williamsburg County, which is a shame.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how would you draw a second AA seat then?

You could run it through Alexandria and other areas along the axis from Baton Rouge to Shreveport.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

Yep, the VRA neither can justify removing the sole minority CD nor requires the creation of a second such district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I suspect the existing black CD under current law would be illegal if there were a redux of it, since a New Orleans based CD would be minority performing, but I also don't think the VRA requires the creation of a second black CD, since a non gerrymandered map does not result in such a CD. One has to create a CD that chops Baton Rouge, and Alexandria, and snake up the Mississippi River to far away rural areas. On the Louisiana thread I posted a non gerrymandered map that I think is almost certainly legal.

I drew a second majority BCVAP district, which is far more compact than a redux of the New Orleans VRA district. My New Orleans VRA district is also more compact than the real one. So does this mean the real map is illegal? Eric Holder is working on a case involving Louisiana's map. My map is similar to the nonpartisan map in the article, but with updated population data and keeping Tangipahoa Parish whole.

Yes, I understand. All I am saying is that I think the odds are small that a court would insist on the map that you drew. Your map however would be legal, even if not required. If Holder is taking on a case asserting that a second black performing CD is required under the VRA, we will find out how accurate my opinion is. In other words, the map that I drew, which is not gerrymandered, and creates a CD that matches the Baton Rouge metro area, and follows county (parish) lines (see below), I think is most probably legal. The Pubs would be wise to draw something like it, to minimize the legal risk from the case Holder might well file.

That map does look nice. It does look like that map would be hard to argue against in court.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is also a case in Alabama. I think the map I drew would work. Because Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana, it's much harder to draw a second performing district in Alabama. I drew what I think is a fair map with a VRA district and a Birmingham district.

Alabama is another case where there is a case for 2 but 1 is also acceptable.

Alabama is more Republican than Louisiana. It's far more difficult to draw two in Alabama. My Alabama map has one performing Black Belt district and one Democratic leaning Birmingham district.

A Birmingham district is a de facto black opportunity CD isn't it? So perhaps 1.5 seats as opposed to 1.

The Birmingham district is majority white by CVAP, but leans Democratic. It has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

Are there notable levels of racial polarization in Dem primaries in Birmingham?