Bold 2020 Predictions

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

AK is a very republican state downballot, it's a fact, point and simple. Since the Ford era democrats have won only one federal race in AK, during a D wave and against a felon.

Alaska's a place where "all politics is local" is alive and well. Case in point: Murkowski not voting for DeVos in the confirmation vote, longtime GOP incumbents bringing in loads of cash from Washington (winning the Native Alaskan vote in the process) etc.
Alaska like most small states has an exceptionally large pro-incumbent bias. (though with the demise of earmarks this probably has lessened a certain extent)