2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember that in the South, the most right-wing conservatives Rs were frequently actually former Democrats who felt they needed to prove their change in loyalties was ironclad.
Same situation might apply here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I doubt McSally is terribly worried about her primary, but this is 2020 and Trump voters across Arizona won’t be in much of a mood to vote for a Republican candidate who isn’t 100% Trumpy and she can’t win without those voters. So a base-turnout strategy likely makes more sense to her in the context of running concurrent to the most up-and-down-the-ballot nationally polarised presidential election in recent memory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

I don’t see it - dems would have a narrow Senate majority. Not enough to truly rock the boat and if Kelly votes like Manchin/Sinema, I think he’d get a full term

I don't see him as being in particular danger either, though he obviously could lose. Arizona's demographic trends are ongoing regardless of whether a Democrat is in the White House.