IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh my god, stop. Enough with these dinosaurs coming out of the woodwork and subsequently blowing senate races for Democrats.

I mean, I don't think Vilsack should run, but you can't claim these "dinosaurs" are blowing Senate races. You can't seriously think anyone could do better than Bredesen or Bayh in Tennessee/Indiana. Sure, they weren't perfect candidates (especially Bayh), but no one else could've won these red states. The only one you can claim blowed a race was Strickland, who ran a terrible campaign, and even then it's likely no one could've beaten Portman.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone explain to me why the DSCC is supporting Greenfield of all people?

She was well liked by Des Moines Democrats, and I believe the Iowa Dems wanted to line up behind her in 2018 when she was running for IA-3, before she had to drop out (her campaign manager at the time forged signatures on her nomination papers; that man was fired but she didn't have enough legitimate signatures to get onto the primary ballot).

This, coupled with the DSCC's focus on women candidates, elevated her campaign early and led the DSCC to line up behind her

Do you think the signature forging could be used against her in the General Election?

It seems unlikely. She was the one who brought the issue of the forgeries to light and immediately fired the individual responsible, so it's hard to see how she could be blamed for it.

I guess that's good. One less potential liability in GE.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).

Ernst could definitely still win.  But she's polling behind Greenfield now, and she's about to get drowned by an avalanche of money.  When you get outraised 4-to-1, you typically don't improve in the polls.  Especially if you're Ernst, who sucks at politics.

Highly subjective, but yeah, IA is like the Democrat's version of NV when it comes to polling, though occasionally polls are pretty decent. Pure tossup IMO, though at face value the fundementals favor Greenfield, I just don't trust IA, even in a D wave national environment

In 2012 GOP won senate seat in NV

Was still 3% closer than polls indicated

NV pollsters have difficulty taking into account Spanish speakers. Which makes polling in NV structurally R-friendly.