2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover support going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06.

What would it say if Handel and Abrams somehow both won by double digits?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover support going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06.

What would it say if Handel and Abrams somehow both won by double digits?

I think that might be a bit of a stretch (though high single digits for both is feasible). I could see perhaps a 20-point difference in the margin between the two contests if it's skewed in favor of Handel: maybe 56-44 Handel and 53-45 Abrams.

Would Handel's margin have any clues about the chances Ds have to take the district in 2020?