New PA Maps In Effect

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also here is my version of a current working copy my map:

A couple minor changes to put incumbents in their seats, and a rework of the Pennsylvania Wilds seats that better accommodates road access - along with keeping Altoona and Johnstown together.

Also, does anyone know if there is a place to submit plans? I know in the Florida case there was, and in 2010 loads of states at least presented the image of a submission bar for citizen drawn maps. I would prefer not simply searching and sending emails to various plaintiffs, but I would like the report that I am compiling to be seen...

This is a great map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I somehow got DRA access again long enough to draw this.
I was largely inspired by Oryxslayer's map.
No townships or Philly wards were split anywhere in the Commonwealth.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't tell by looking at the maps as they are, but do those maps keep Pittsburgh whole? Pittsburgh should be entirely contained within one district.

Thats not saying much - ~90% of maps are better than both the previous map and the one the legislature just drew. So far: I have yet to see a map that tops the one I previously drew

It seemed to me that some here were actually defending the monstrosity that came out of the PA GOP. I think there a few things to look for in a fair PA map: two Philly districts entirely within the city, a Bucks County district, a MontCo district, a DelCo district, a Lehigh Valley district, a Scranton/Wilkes-Barre district, a Lancaster district, a Pittsburgh district, and so on.

The map I just made has an all-MontCo CD, but the cost of that is a tiny chop of Chester County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map is terrible at least for three reasons:
1) it mixes York and Lancaster
2) it splits Bucks
3) there's a seat running from Reading to inner-ring Philadelphia suburbs.

Proportionality matters but this is overdoing it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map is terrible at least for three reasons:
1) it mixes York and Lancaster
2) it splits Bucks
3) there's a seat running from Reading to inner-ring Philadelphia suburbs.

Proportionality matters but this is overdoing it.

But it splits less counties then any of the other maps and it is more compact.

Compactness isn't the only thing that matters. I'd rather have Bucks whole and the Lehigh Valley whole rather than have a marginally more compact map.
PA has some parochial rules that have to be followed when one crafts a congressional district map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map is terrible at least for three reasons:
1) it mixes York and Lancaster
2) it splits Bucks
3) there's a seat running from Reading to inner-ring Philadelphia suburbs.

Proportionality matters but this is overdoing it.

But it splits less counties then any of the other maps and it is more compact.

Compactness isn't the only thing that matters. I'd rather have Bucks whole and the Lehigh Valley whole rather than have a marginally more compact map.
PA has many parochial rules that have to be followed when one crafts a congressional district map.

The Supreme Court said nothing about having to follow old rules. Luckily the special master drawing the new map is a professor from Stanford and probably knows nothing of these weird rules.

Why does Bucks County get to be kept whole due to tradition, but Delaware and Montgomery can be chopped into a million different pieces. Why are some counties given preferential treatment over the other? Same for municipalities and towns. To me there is no difference is splitting Pittsburgh in two than splitting a random town in Clearfield County in two.

Bucks is a county that is close to quota anyway. It makes sense to parcel up MontCo not only because it's in a central location in SEPA but also because it's bigger than one CD. While Bucks is to the far Northeast in relative terms, and below quota.
Whether you like it or not, these parochial rules are backed up by the total populations and the physical locations on these counties on the map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Many a Gerrymander has turned into a Dummymander after 10 years.

Gerrymandering is an American tradition that is even older than the person for whom it is named.

Do you keep a straight face when you make the argument that rigging elections via crafty map making is OK because ...tradition?

Jesus

Tradition matters. If the Framers were using their state legislatures to Gerrymander to try to keep Thomas Jefferson out of office, how is it unconstitutional for a state legislature to do the same thing today? The wording of constitution hasn’t changed, if I’m not mistaken.

And what is rigging elections via crafty map? Can I argue that my Congressional election is rigged because I wasn’t put in a district with enough Republicans to elect a Republican? I will never have a Republican congressman in my current district, period.

We don’t live in a proportional democracy. If Democrats aren’t able to broaden their appeal outside of the cities, that is their fault. No “crafty” map should be enacted by judicial fiat to try to create a proportional system when that’s not what we have by splitting up cities. If the state legislature wants to do that (like in Maryland and Illinois), I’m fine with it. But no court should impose such a thing by dictat in the name of “fairness”.

And let me guess, Virginia, you prefer the recent map aptly labeled Democratic Gerrymander, too, because you, like me are a partisan who wants their party to win.

The last map posted is the most fair based on the principles put forward by the PA Supreme Court.

Regardless of whether or not what you said is true, it's still a dumb map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Many a Gerrymander has turned into a Dummymander after 10 years.

Gerrymandering is an American tradition that is even older than the person for whom it is named.

Do you keep a straight face when you make the argument that rigging elections via crafty map making is OK because ...tradition?

Jesus

Tradition matters. If the Framers were using their state legislatures to Gerrymander to try to keep Thomas Jefferson out of office, how is it unconstitutional for a state legislature to do the same thing today? The wording of constitution hasn’t changed, if I’m not mistaken.

And what is rigging elections via crafty map? Can I argue that my Congressional election is rigged because I wasn’t put in a district with enough Republicans to elect a Republican? I will never have a Republican congressman in my current district, period.

We don’t live in a proportional democracy. If Democrats aren’t able to broaden their appeal outside of the cities, that is their fault. No “crafty” map should be enacted by judicial fiat to try to create a proportional system when that’s not what we have by splitting up cities. If the state legislature wants to do that (like in Maryland and Illinois), I’m fine with it. But no court should impose such a thing by dictat in the name of “fairness”.

And let me guess, Virginia, you prefer the recent map aptly labeled Democratic Gerrymander, too, because you, like me are a partisan who wants their party to win.

The last map posted is the most fair based on the principles put forward by the PA Supreme Court.

Regardless of whether or not what you said is true, it's still a dumb map.

And?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A fair map could lead to relative proportionality in some states, but it isn't something that should really be taken into account. The problem with an argument about proportionality is that geography doesn't always allow for it because one party is sometimes packed heavily in one area of a state and it would take gerrymandering just to achieve parity.

Proportionality is impossible in Massachusetts while truly  respecting CoI, though a 5D-4Swing map is possible if one is focused solely on proportionality.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

Especially in Western PA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/new-pennsylvania-map-major-boost-democrats
This might be of use to y'all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have great doubts this actually goes anywhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lets talk about a few other states and how Districts are likely to shift in a fair map:
Underlined are Districts that are more likely than not to flip in a fair map in a neutral year.

Michigan:

01: Not much
02: Strongly towards Democrats
03: Slightly towards Democrats
04: Not much
05: Not much
06: Strongly towards Republicans
07: Slightly towards Democrats
08: Slightly towards Democrats
09: Slightly towards Republicans
10: Not much
11: Strongly towards Democrats
12: Not much
13: Not much
14: Not much

Maps or it didn't happen.