How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am quite skeptical this actually flips. Sessions is an entrenched, longtime incumbent R well-attuned to his district and i doubt the AHCA vote would cost him his seat by itself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

Ah, yes, that too! Preston Hollow seems to be where GWB lives, and all. Just still more evidence that it's country-club-republican-land.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

For sure. It is the most conservative and homogenous area in the county, all you will see are mcmansions, mansions, small homes worth tons, boutiques that make whole foods look affordable, land rovers, rampant drug usage in the highschool from rich parents, fancy restaurants with food I cannot pronounce, and everyone dressed the same.

For what's it worth, Northern Dallas County is the core of the territory represented by the sole Republican on the County board, MIke Cantrell. The rest of the seats are gerrymandered in favor of Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

Yes.
I think the best value a good, strong campaign in TX-32 would have, is that it stretches R resources. Let's just nominate Colin and see the Rs sweat, spending money they would have spent elsewhere (esp. TX-23).