NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

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Phillips is +3 right now, but among people who are certain to vote he's +10. Similar story for Radinovich, who's +2 overall but +4 among those certain to vote. The switch to likely voters is going to hit Republicans like a truck this year.

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Phillips is now +7, and +14 among those certain to vote.

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In what is quickly becoming a recurring theme for Democrats in these polls, Spanberger is doing faaar better among those who are certain to vote. +7!

(And same story for Ojeda, who is +4 among those certain to vote.)

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Wow NM-2 is really close..

Was it ever not supposed to be?

It's generally a very Republican district.

Trump got 50% here in 2016 (granted Gary Johnson may have eaten into that vote share a bit), similar to other competitive open seats.

Trump won by 10 and Romney won by 7.

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Finkenauer's numbers are just astounding. +14... and a mind-blowing +25 among voters who are "almost certain to vote" (a very important number given what midterm turnout is usually like. And Finkenauer's not the only Dem in these polls to do 10~ points better among the most likely voters.)

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I never said that Hill is finished. Quite the contrary, I said that she could easily make up a 2-point deficit by November (if the poll is accurate.) I was just disappointed to see the poll trend so sharply away from her after she was up by 7 with more than half of all responses in. One thing I am curious about is the implications of IA-01 being so lopsided. While it is one poll, if Blum really is losing by this much, could similar districts in the Midwest end up being more favorable for the Democrats than we're expecting? This races don't all happen in a vacuum.

It is certainly true that each race doesn't happen in a vacuum and to some degree you can infer things about similar districts from a result in one district, but Blum is also an especially weak incumbent who is a very poor fit for his district.

What basis do you have to say that? Blum outran Trump substantially in 2016... he won by 8 while Trump won his district by 4. And Trump did fantastically well in Iowa, so those are some darn good numbers for Blum.

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Katie Porter being up 6 is absolutely amazing. Do people understand how great that number is for Democrats? Walters got 59% in 2016! And Democrats did not do badly in California in 2016.