rough 2040 electoral map

[Thunderbird is the word]

not sure what the exact electoral vote totals will be and this is admittedly based on pure speculation.

[Thunderbird is the word]

There could be trends that we don't anticipate now though, like possibly a revived labor movement.

[Thunderbird is the word]

The two-party system may well have broken by then.

Barring the dissolution of the electoral college via constitutional amendment I see that as highly unlikely.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

Maybe that was the wrong way of putting it. I've just noticed the same trend on the Democratic side of the party increasingly developing an elitist attitude towards "flyover country" and almost wanting to become an elite party and I wonder if that's a risidual effect of country club Republican types, scarred of the GOP becoming Democrats.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I wouldn't assume that deunionized working class whites are automatically going to tilt more Republican. Younger working class whites are not their Reagan Democrat grandparents and plenty are socially tolerant. I think they'll be a swing demographic more then many thing divided on the basis of levels of religiosity.