Polish Politics and Elections

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

Ah. So not all 460 are allocated by PR.  As for Confederation I thought threshold for alliance is 7%

8%, and they are single party electoral committee so 5%.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

Rather Kukiz voters + some of the centre-right conservative-liberals who used to support Gwiazdowski + traditional PSL electorate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How quickly do results come in?

Better to go to bed.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Late poll at 24, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Late poll at 23, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

Will this be based on exit poll and some partial count?

Probably.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Not normally one to post in the International Elections thread, but man is this devastating. How does the world's population love the right so much?

The former Warsaw pact countries has had corrupt and morally despicable pseudo-authoritarian parties of power govern for nearly 100 years now, the traditions and expectations have not changed even as the faces do.

I wouldn't call PiS corrupt and that generalization about Central Europe is just plainly stupid and inaccurate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Still no official results counted at all?

Not in Poland, we do not do such things.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ok, late poll is late apparently. Partial results will be announced Monday at 10 in the morning (local time)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

82.79% counted, still less in Warsaw but in some rural areas also so I guess we will have pretty similar result compared to what is now:

PiS: 45,2%
KO: 26,1%
SLD: 12,1%
PSL: 8,8%
KON: 6,7%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Few important info:

1) Gowin and Ziobro who have their own parties but re allied to PiS and were participatin in this elections from PiS lists got ca. 30 MPs. So Kaczyński must not be happy. PiS probably will have majority but it will depend on not sure from PiS perspective people.

2) Opposition can take the Senate. It will not stop PiS legislation but it can slow down a little bit the tempo.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

Senate is elected with FPTP, as for now is 48-48.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What's the deal with Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative? Why didn't they join the SLD-Razem-Wiosna alliance?

Because they thought that deal with PO will give them more MPs. And she generally broke with the rest of the left long time ago so this wasn't even a question.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS projected to lose majority in the Senate.

Not really projected, it is pretty sure.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

For who? Where?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

For who? Where?

I think I read somewhere that this was the case for the Confederacy. Wrong ?

They are nuts but not neo-nazi.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs

Who got in besides Nowacka and Dariusz the pool attendant?

Piekarska and Napieralski who joined them.

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?

Not yet.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Official 100% for Sejm according to PKW

PSL: 30
PiS: 235
SLD: 49
Konfederacja: 11
KO: 134
MN: 1

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Apparently Konfederacja are already talking about splitting into two parliamentary groups, lol.

Winnicki debunked it, although you never knows with them.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Detailed maps:

https://wbdata.pl/wyniki-wyborow-do-sejmu-2019-na-mapach/

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Should Czykwin be counted as a "Belarussian minority MP", since he was elected from KO, as opposed to being elected from a minority committee like Galla?

Nope, he will be KO MP.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

According to Wikipedia Czykwin is affiliated with SLD, when did he switch to KO?

He drifted away between 2018 and 2019. Electoral Commission data stated that he is no longer member of SLD (and any other party).

  So why is it that there is still a significant German minority in the Opole region unlike any of the other former German silesian or pomeranian areas.

Well, this was part of ethnically German Silesia which was closest one to the historical ethnic border with ethnically Polish Silesia, so most of the Germans there were more prepared to stay (some of them married Polish people, some of them were able to hide German roots, rural population had greater incentives to stay as they had land etc.) in the state which until ca. 1980s tried to polonize everything. Generally there were two places where Germans stayed in Poland after 1945 in some significant groups - region of Opole (and to some extend western part of Silesian voivodship) and region of Wałbrzych where German miners were crucial for coal mining after the war. Those two groups stayed, but until today we have only Upper Silesian group. The rest generally left Poland to live in Germany.