MS Gov. IMPACT SURVEY tied

[MT Treasurer]

This race has produced some of the laziest analysis on this forum, which really says a lot. Very few even bother to look up the candidates, the campaign issues, their ads, profiles, etc., it’s just "Safe R because MS is inelastic", "state is racially polarized" and "Hood can get to 46% but nothing else" in every single thread. Repeating it all the time doesn’t make it any more accurate, however.

[MT Treasurer]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015

Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.

Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.

Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!

[MT Treasurer]

This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.

"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015

Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.

Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.

Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!

JBE won in a runoff about a month after the regular elections.  Later runoffs have different dynamics than regular Election Day races.

They do, but not as radically different as would be sufficient to explain this outcome. Vitter finished the first round with 23% of the vote — his flaws as a candidate were already more than apparent in that election, and he predictably bled a ton of Republican support to JBE in the runoff just like he did to other Republicans in the jungle primary.

Reeves' flaws as a candidate have been just as obvious for months now, and he’s doing absolutely nothing to combat them.