PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[MT Treasurer]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

[MT Treasurer]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.