MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: October 10, 2022, 05:23:46 PM » |
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« edited: October 10, 2022, 05:28:08 PM by MT Treasurer »
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Surprisingly bad poll for Ryan — he’ll need to outperform the GCB by a lot more than that to have a shot. FTR, Republicans won the House popular vote in 2020 by 14 points, and that was with no uncontested races. Vance +2 with a R+6 GCB is problematic for Ryan, to say the least.
I’d also caution people against reading too much into Vance underperforming DeWine's numbers by this much. DeWine is precisely the type of candidate who’d poll well with high-propensity, high-engagement voters who are easier to reach, whereas the underperformance would presumably be a lot less pronounced among lower-propensity voters who actually have some affinity for Trump but who are harder to reach. This is also not the first poll showing 'more Trumpy' candidates undeperforming generic Republicans by an unusual amount.
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