2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[MT Treasurer]

I know there’s more reported on the R side than on the D side, but the fact that Vance has almost the exact same number of votes as Ryan right now just couldn’t be a more striking testimony to the dire state of OH Democrats. The D/R vote total difference in IN is also just brutal for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

I know there’s more reported on the R side than on the D side, but the fact that Vance has almost the exact same number of votes as Ryan right now just couldn’t be a more striking testimony to the dire state of OH Democrats. The D/R vote total difference in IN is also just brutal for Democrats.

TBF there was nothing competitive for Democrats statewide in either state.

Yes, although the same could be said about IN on the R side. It’s still a notable improvement over previous cycles (and possibly a new statewide record in terms of the R-over-D margin?).

[MT Treasurer]

Mooney has already taken the lead. If that Jefferson County margin (~50%-point lead for Mooney) is even close to the final result, I don’t see a path for McKinley. He’s also underperforming in his home turf.

[MT Treasurer]

Pillen is doing well enough in NE-03 (even on track to win a few counties) that I think he should win the race. It’s looking pretty bad for Lindstrom, though.

[MT Treasurer]

So sick of this meme that Oz is a 'strong' candidate, let alone stronger than Barnette. He’s a phony and a grifter who’s way easier to paint as untrustworthy and out for himself than Barnette. It will also be hilarious to see the Trump cultists' meltdown if Oz loses and Barnette actually wins this (and she still has a chance based on what I’m seeing so far).

Standard disclaimer for primary vote totals not being predictive, but if the OH Sen vote totals spelled doom for Dems there, then the NC numbers should offer a glimmer of hope. Dems will end up having roughly the same total primary vote despite a slightly less competitive primary.

Extra disclaimer: Dems apparently had 60% of the total primary vote in 2020 and lost the senate race under similar conditions.

Regardless, indicates Beasley has a lot of fervent supporters and that Dem enthusiasm may be better than it was after the abortion decision got leaked.

...No, they won’t? (like, not even close...)

[MT Treasurer]

I would have faith in this logic, but it kinda gives me Trump 2016 vibes.

Except that Fetterman doesn’t have a historically low favorability rating for a Democratic candidate for federal office.

[MT Treasurer]

If it’s Oz vs. Fetterman, I think - esp. after Fetterman's impressive showing tonight - that AZ and NV will go R before PA. Maybe even GA, although that might be stretching it.

Really think the GOP did itself no favors here with Mastriano and Oz. Getting reverse FL 2018 vibes in that PA Dems might (narrowly) get lucky in both high-profile races even on a bad night.

Meanwhile, NC-SEN can basically be moved to Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

Already said this a few weeks ago, but the PA GOP really takes the cake as far as hilariously incompetent swing state state parties are concerned. They officially dethroned FL Democrats tonight.

[MT Treasurer]

The first election year I actively followed was 2014, when Republicans like Tom Corbett and Terri Lynn Land were considered awful candidates or outright 'unelectable.' Compared to the people winning GOP primaries nowadays, they’d basically be considered generic Republicans or even strong candidates today.

[MT Treasurer]

The first election year I actively followed was 2014, when Republicans like Tom Corbett and Terri Lynn Land were considered awful candidates or outright 'unelectable.' Compared to the people winning GOP primaries nowadays, they’d basically be considered generic Republicans or even strong candidates today.

Terri Lynn Land wasn't really a crazy wack-a-doodle candidate though, she was just a generic R SoS that when pushed to run a real campaign was found to be incompetent.

I know people often tend to overstate the difference between "then" and "now," but it’s just amusing when you consider that botching a press conference and avoiding reporters was all it took for a candidate's campaign to be written off/thought to be imploding and said candidate to underperform the fundamentals of their race by double digits.

It was more of a general observation anyway. I don’t think anyone can seriously argue that people like Rick Berg or Connie Mack would be judged by the same standards today as they were in 2012.

[MT Treasurer]

If anything one might wonder if PUB TO will be depressed w/o Trump on the ticket, with a Q-Anon nut running for OR-SEN.

This again? There is absolutely no reason to expect Republican turnout to be depressed "without Trump on the ticket."

This is also what many Democrats here thought/hoped was going to happen in VA and NJ in 2021 and - surprise - the massive drop-off in R turnout never materialized because GOP voters actually care about more than Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Nobody likes MT.

Thanks.

[MT Treasurer]

It feels really, really weird scrolling around on the Montana NY Times map given that there’s two districts now. With this and my new haircut (which I got two weeks ago — just for the occasion, of course!), I’m officially a neoliberal, elitist, corporate, out-of-touch sellout.

Anyway, the high-profile contests to watch are obviously MT-1 (R), MT-1 (D), but also - if you’re particularly interested in MT politics - the two Supreme Court races. Two of nine seats are up for grabs this year (with each Judge elected to an eight-year term). It’s no secret that Republicans have seen the Court as the last "liberal holdout" and the biggest obstacle to their agenda in the state (after decades of Democratic rule or split government), especially since the conservative takeover of the MTGOP by Daines, Gianforte, and Knudsen. This is also why the GOP has been more active in promoting candidates whose judicial philosophy they view as more in line with their approach, esp. in the race for seat #2, where Just. Ingrid Gustafson (generally regarded as reliably liberal and supported by Democratic groups) is up for reelection this year. Just. Jim Rice is favored for seat #1 — Republicans wouldn’t consider him reliable by any stretch of the imagination (nor should they), but they’d still prefer him to the alternative, and he’s generally regarded as one of the more conservative members of the Court.

Turnout has been comparatively low so far in a state which usually has one of the highest turnout rates in the West and the nation. However, it’s hard not to attribute some of that to the utter irrelevance of the MT-2 (D) contest and the non-competitiveness of the MT-2 (R) race.

[MT Treasurer]

Supposedly zinke off to poor start?

Literally just 184 votes in, all of them from the most unrepresentative county (in a R primary) in this district — Deer Lodge.

[MT Treasurer]

Fun fact: "Maryland Matt" Rosendale's 'main' primary challenger was born in the same town as Jon Tester (Havre) and also grew up on a farm in that area!

[MT Treasurer]

Right now, Olszewski is leading Zinke 49-28 or approx. 2.5K votes in Flathead County. Olszewski can’t afford that margin to shrink given what’s still out in some Zinke-friendly territory like Missoula or even Ravalli (Olszewski really needed to perform a little better in the latter county in particular to feel good about his chances).

Still a humiliation for Zinke even if he scrapes by, of course (he is not and never has been a "stronger candidate" than Matt Rosendale).

[MT Treasurer]

Unfortunately, Lincoln County still hasn’t reported any votes due to a "technical issue" — we can probably expect about 4K votes to have been cast in the GOP primary there. Zinke winning it or losing it by less than 10 points (which seems likely) would basically seal the deal.

In other news, Republican-endorsed candidates for Supreme Court seat #2 managed to hold Justice Ingrid Gustafson below 50%, which is fairly unusual for a Court race in which the incumbent is running again (see: Just. Rice annihilating his lone opponent by a 76-24 margin for seat #1). Now it’s Gustafson ("non-partisan" D) vs. Brown ("non-partisan" R) in November.

[MT Treasurer]

Primary turnout numbers in MT are one giant yikes for Democrats:

MT-1 (Trump +7.1)* -

GOP - 79,198 - 60%
DEM - 53,614 - 40%

MT-2 (Trump +27.5) -

GOP - 94,994 - 72%
DEM - 36,695 - 28%

Statewide (MT-1 & MT-2 R/D vote totals added up) -

GOP - 174,192 - 66%
DEM - 90,309 - 34%

For comparison and some context, MT-AL (D) 2018 & MT-SEN (R) 2018:

GOP - 152,483 - 58%
DEM - 110,883 - 42%

(a 16-point shift to the GOP since 2018)

*This is without deep-red Lincoln County reporting, which will widen the GOP's lead when it comes in (although I expect it to end up very close to 60/40 when everything is tallied).

[MT Treasurer]

GOP - 174,192 - 66%
DEM - 90,309 - 34%

For comparison and some context, MT-AL (D) 2018 & MT-SEN (R) 2018:

GOP - 152,483 - 58%
DEM - 110,883 - 42%

(a 16-point shift to the GOP since 2018)

That's an 8-point shift.

Margins are a far more useful & less misleading metric than vote/turnout share comparisons in this case, esp. when there are no major third-party/independent candidates involved and we’re really just dealing with two-party vote.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not really sure why so many people seem shocked the “No” vote passed in KS and that all those trump counties went in the direction of “no”. Not every Republican is a religious person who cares about abortion in a sense of taking it away. There’s plenty of pro choice republicans who are conservative for fiscal issues, immigration, energy, crime, but don’t support abortion bans and are pro choice. Kansas along with many other Midwestern states is conservative but not so much so for abortion/religious reason. It’s conservative for the other reasons I outlined. This isn’t Alabama.
Also this very different than a congressional race between D and R in which you are voting for a number of issues.

This is a state which has sent many pro-choice Democrats to Topeka, so it’s not surprising that "No" won. It’s the margin that is giving many people pause (and for good reason).

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

Laxalt, Budd, Grassley, Schmitt, etc. are not "blowing" it and they’re still underperforming considerably in polling. Even if you think there’s a D bias in most of these similar to or greater than in 2020, it’s pretty obvious that something else seems to be going on. It’s evident everywhere.

[MT Treasurer]

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

[MT Treasurer]

We can argue whether it was the right thing to do but the DCCC spending for Gibbs just may flip this race.

I’m far from a Democrat and I don’t see anything wrong or morally objectionable about this.

[MT Treasurer]

Schmidt currently with the same percentage of the vote as Moran (80.4%) — an extremely impressive showing on his part which inspires at least some confidence about his GE prospects.