Rate Nevada

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R - it’s not impossible for Cortez Masto to win this race, but it’s also hard to think of a Senate race where Democratic prospects have been more overrated than NV and AZ (although GA can probably be added to that list soon). The idea that Republicans winning NV in a midterm under a Democratic trifecta would be some kind of "upset" has never made any sense (even when the environment was far less favorable to the GOP than it is now), nor has the theory that Republicans are unlikely to cut into the 10-point Democratic advantage in Clark County even in a very R-friendly year ever been convincing. I get the impression that people still don’t realize that NV Democrats can’t afford even the slightest erosion in support given how shaky their current coalition is and how narrow their advantage in the state was even in 2020 — even if Republicans make only small gains with independents and reliably Democratic groups vote like in 2020, a change in turnout patterns alone will be enough to make NV a Toss-up. Even when Reid won in 2010, the state swung seven points to the right between 2008 and 2010 (!) — Republicans need a little less than a 3-point swing this time, unless you believe Cortez Masto actually has crossover appeal among Trump voters (which.... well...).

If the parties were reversed and we were talking about a Trump +2.5 state that had been trending D in the last three presidential elections, just voted to the left of the nation, had a history of electing Democrats in Democratic-leaning years, and had a generic party-line Republican/'Trumpist' up for reelection in a Trump midterm, somehow I don’t think we’d even be having this debate.