So you think Cortez Masto holds on by a point of two even in a strong R year?
That’s reasonable if so, just that’s what those county-level results would imply to me.
I was mocking the "populous counties can’t swing Republican" or "voters in populous Democratic counties aren’t amenable to the right Republican messaging" logic, which has now been disproven in several elections (most notably FL-PRES 2020 and VA-GOV 2021) yet is so prevalent on this forum because people prefer to cling to irrational or lazy theories like "Nevada is Titanium Lean D" or "the math just isn’t there for Republicans in NV." Observers generally tend to exaggerate how 'inelastic' or 'static' NV is — Republicans only need a fraction of the swing they managed in places far more 'inflexibly Democratic' than Washoe/Clark, e.g. Loudoun, Prince William, etc., to flip Nevada, and the state very much
has a history of swinging with the nation and voting very close to the national result. For those reasons, I don’t think Cortez Masto holding on in a "strong R year" is particularly "reasonable" at all, to be honest. I could see her holding on in a 2020-type environment (in case you didn’t notice, I just posted the exact 2020 NV-PRES margins in my first post), but there’s really no good, non-memey reason to believe she has a good chance of holding on to her seat in a "strong R year," much less a Republican wave election. I said the same things about Dean Heller in 2017/2018, who, while no egregiously "weak" incumbent or anything, was (ironically) just as overrated by pundits/this forum despite representing a Clinton state in an environment far more favorable to Democrats than 2016.
I expect Washoe to be very close either way (Laxalt +<1, if I had to call it right now, but Cortez Masto barely carrying it even while losing statewide is definitely possible). The range of plausible outcomes in Clark is a little wider, but I
currently expect Masto to win it by 3-5 points (a margin insufficient for a statewide win). The deep-red rural/small-town areas should have very high turnout, which further underscores that Cortez Masto has absolutely zero room for error and basically needs to match Biden's Washoe/Clark margins, which is a very tall order in this environment and considering the swings we’ve seen elsewhere. I also wouldn’t be surprised by much more pronounced R swings in the Las Vegas area than is currently expected — it’s the kind of metro I could see Republicans making major inroads in in a wave environment given how reliant Democrats are on a ground/turnout operation that has shown
some signs of crumbling, unusual strength among unionized and non-college-educated (particularly Hispanic, but also AA) voters, and turnout of Democratic-leaning voters who have traditionally been more low-propensity. Of the most competitive Senate races (AZ/NV/GA/NH/PA), this one has the greatest potential for a 'surprisingly' lopsided R margin of victory. I also think the longer this whole COVID situation drags on, the worse the situation will become for (NV) Democrats.
I will also add that for all of Laxalt's alleged weaknesses as a candidate, he’s probably 'stronger' than some of the current R frontrunners in the other races (Parnell, Masters, Bolduc, etc.) even if it’s just by virtue of being a generic Republican. Cortez Masto also has very few strengths in her own right — she has no distinguishable brand like Kelly, is fairly easy to paint as a party-line vote beholden to the radical left, and was very reliant on the top of the ticket in her first election. These types of incumbents don’t tend to perform nearly as well when the environment radically shifts in favor of the other party. You could argue that Maggie Hassan is somewhat similar to or 'weaker' than her (and I’d probably agree) but Hassan at least has the partisan lean and D trend of her state going in her favor, whereas Cortez Masto really hasn’t. It’s not even ludicrous to argue that Cortez Masto’s the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in 2022, even though I still think Kelly edges her out (narrowly), at least for now. Yet from reading this forum, you’d get the impression that this race is an uphill battle for
Republicans.
Poll
