Most Vulnerable House Incumbents?

[MT Treasurer]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

Because his district is more republican than Wisconsin in general? Not that hard to guess what NYE meant!

His district is precisely the part of the state where he would need to overperform Biden/a generic D rather substantially if he were to easily beat Ron Johnson. I think SnowLabrador took issue with the "easily" part (which is hard to square with the proposition that he would be "DOA" in his district) more than the idea that Kind would be more likely to beat Ron Johnson than to win reelection to his House seat. I also agree with NYE that WI statewide is rapidly becoming less hostile territory for Democrats than Kind's district even in a R-leaning midterm, especially if movements toward Democrats in WOW/Green Bay (especially the former) are more cemented than one might think. However, if those trends decelerate notably in a midterm under a Democratic president (somewhat analogous to R trends in places like ME-02/OH under Trump), he’ll need an overperformance elsewhere. Either way, while coalitions have obviously shifted internally in WI, two reliable urban bases (the more liberal of which has seen steady population growth) and favorable suburban trends provide the Democrats with just as high a floor as a decade ago.

[MT Treasurer]

Unrelated note, welcome back!

Thanks, just dropping by once every few weeks like I said I might, nothing special. A more extended break was/is easier than I thought it would be, but in any case, hope you’re doing well.