Tilt R, closer to Lean R than Tossup (and I could see this moving to Lean R very quickly). I like how some people think that Sununu will be the only one who’s going to be hit by a barrage of negative ads if he runs when Hassan is going to cast the deciding vote on every single item on Biden's agenda.
I’ve said this before, but she has absolutely nothing other than the state's D lean at the federal level going in her favor, and I don’t think that lean is strong enough to save her in a poor environment against an opponent who’s very much able to execute the right messaging against her/skilled at cultivating a favorable brand/capable of setting the overall tone/narrative of the campaign. It will require
some Manchin-esque performance art, but hey, Democrats don’t have a monopoly on that.
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