inb4 MT Treasurer makes some snarky and obnoxious "Likely D imo tbh" post
No, I will not do that. There is no place for sarcasm and unfunny attempts at wit in this thread. As evidenced by the contributions of the previous posters, this thread is intended for serious discussion and hard-hitting analysis, not nonsense like that which adds not a modicum of substance to the matter at hand.
Actual high-quality contribution below.
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🚨 Ratings change 🚨
Alabama
02/04/2021
United States Senate, Class III, Richard G. Shelby (R, inc.) - Safe R
02/05/2021
United States Senate, Class III, OPEN - Lean R
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Initial 2022 Analysis:
Alabama
02/05/2021
United States Senate, Class III, OPEN
The retirement of six-term Republican Senator Richard Shelby may not have caught Republican national leaders by the same surprise as Ohio Senator Rob Portman's retirement last week, but it is just the latest piece of bad news in what is shaping up to be an uphill battle for Republicans to defend several open Senate seats and retake the Senate in 2022.
"Incumbents always start out with an advantage for a variety of reasons, above all fundraising, name recognition, statewide familiarity, popularity, and campaign prowess on the ground, which is why this race would not have been on anyone's radar screen if Senator Shelby had decided to seek a seventh term," Amy W. Walter of MT(P)R Political Report clarified. "Now, Republicans are still favorites to hold the seat in what remains a state Trump carried by 25 percentage points, but at the very least, the seat is likely to give Republican strategists a headache amidst an already daunting Senate landscape upended by retirements of popular Republican incumbents in Ohio (Robert J. Portman), Pennsylvania (Patrick J. Toomey Jr.), and North Carolina (Richard M. Burr)."
"At the end of the day, it’s about more than just Alabama," Jennifer E. Duffy, senior editor for MT(P)R Political Report, emphasized. "This is not a situation like in Pennsylvania, where the incumbent may have been the only Republican who could have successfully defended the seat. Republicans still have a good chance of holding Alabama, but the real question is whether this national trend of incumbents retiring continues or not." Republican sources who want to remain anonymous have confirmed rumors that two-term Senator Roy D. Blunt of Missouri and seven-term Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa might forgo another term, which would significantly worsen already poor Republican prospects of retaking the upper chamber. "Roy is really strong, he knows how to run effective campaigns. I think Jason Kander would be Senator right now if we hadn’t persuaded him to run again in 2016," one Missouri strategist privately acknowledged.
Privately, Republicans in Alabama and D.C. alike are fretting over a potential repeat of the last open Senate race in the state, when the confirmation of Jeff Sessions (R) as Attorney General allowed Democrat Doug Jones to win an open seat in what is normally a ruby-red state. "Shelby is a real powerhourse in Alabama politics, I’m just not sure if there’s anyone out there who can match him on the ground," one concerned Republican local official told MT(P)R Political Report. The question the party now has to grapple with is whether Shelby's decision, much like that of other Republican incumbents, is a sign Republicans are anticipating yet another tough environment in 2022. In an increasingly polarized environment, Alabama may prove to be a mountain too tough to climb for Democrats, but the ramifications of Shelby's retirement for potential marquee Senate battles in Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina are hard to ignore.
- Michael T. Reasurer Jr., MT(P)R Political Report
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Next:
Initial 2022 Analysis - United States Senate, Arkansas, John N. Bozeman (R, inc.) - Safe R
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