Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

Might have something to do with the fact that blue state Republicans actively distance themselves from the national party (to say nothing of the fact that they have to deal with heavily D legislatures, which essentially makes conservative governance in those states impossible even with Republican governors) and red state Democrats don’t/run as generic Democrats. But of course you people will believe in your nonsensical "asymmetric polarization benefits Republicans" talking point to feel morally superior — you’re not genuinely interested in debating this (otherwise you’d point out the disparity between red state Democratic vs. blue state Republican overperformances in the Senate and even House races) and it’s unfortunately impossible to change your mind.

[MT Treasurer]

KY Fraternal Order of Police endorses Cameron for Governor -

https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-08-15/ky-fraternal-order-of-police-endorses-daniel-cameron-in-race-for-governor

They endorsed Beshear in 2019, Conway in 2015 (and 2010 for Senate), and Steve Beshear in 2007/2011.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

[MT Treasurer]

"There you go again!"

When I saw you post that, I was reminded of what Oscar Wilde used to say, "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness." And until now, I wasn’t quite so sure what he meant by mediocrity.

Honestly, anyone with your track record predicting THIS particular race who also was capable of even a modicum of shame would just stay out of it.

You talk about a modicum of shame, but anybody with a modicum of brain will recall that I was of the firm belief that the 2019 race was a Toss-up. I did predict a narrow Bevin win in the end, which wasn’t any worse than your prediction of a Beshear landslide, but I had it rated as a Toss-up and very much rejected the overconfidence about an easy Bevin win on this forum, even when it meant challenging absolute forum giants such as IceSpear.

That being said, and this may shock you, but you aren't totally wrong.

Oh, it doesn’t shock me — it’s something, and this may shock you, I hear a lot more often than you.... you might think, I should add.

[MT Treasurer]

Cameron is going to lose women big time — he had better hope enough men notice their wives'/girlfriends' *political* affection for Beshear just in time, but it’s not looking good..

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve long believed that MS and KY will vote a lot closer to one another than many people here realize (regardless of who wins each race).

[MT Treasurer]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

[MT Treasurer]

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

That’s the question, but I wonder just how soft a lot of the support for Beshear is.

[MT Treasurer]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

[MT Treasurer]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

[MT Treasurer]

I unironically think Beshear giving off alpha/daddy vibes while Cameron gives off opposite vibes has a lot more to do with the closeness of this race than any "Dobbs effect." It’s the only reason why I think Beshear can still pull it off, even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

There’s going to be a massive gender gap here..

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure if this has been clarified yet as I've seen this said multiple times in this thread but Laura Kelly did not lose ground in her re-election - she increased her vote share against lower turnout, a significantly less favorable political climate, and a more popular opponent.

This is like arguing that Bob Dole did not "lose ground" compared to George H. W. Bush because he increased the R vote share between 1992 and 1996.

Different candidates, I know, but the elephant in the room here is Orman. You cannot compare a race with a high-profile independent challenger to one without as that will always affect vote share of the other candidate(s). Without Orman, Kelly would probably not have increased her vote share/the difference would have been near-negligible.

Your focus on vote share as opposed to margins works much better in polling, I think.