Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

Why do you have VA as only likely D???

Off-year, non-federal election under a D president with potentially unique local dynamics/issues. I do think it’s very close to Safe and it’s possible there’s no path for the GOP here regardless of candidates/environment/voter fatigue/etc., but I rated it Likely out of an abundance of caution. It’s the same reason I only rated MD Lean D (I’d be surprised if Republicans managed to hold it).

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)

I agree with most of this, but I’m curious why you (and others) think OR is a better pick-up opportunity for the GOP than MN. I agree that MN is an uphill battle for the party, but everything working against the party in MN seems to be working against them in OR as well, if not even more so (metro areas and non-largest-metro/capital and non-capital urban counties moving to the left, rural population/R gains not sufficiently large to offset that, recreation and D transplants halting the R trend in some R areas, strong presence of college-educated and liberal whites, D trends among affluent voters, etc.). Is it the divergence in the COVID response and approval numbers of both governors? I get that Brown seems to be a little more unpopular than Walz (although I’m not sure I trust those polling numbers entirely), but I could at least see a short-term R winning coalition on the state level in MN which accelerates current R trends (Democrats still have room to fall in many red parts of the state + certainly in the Iron Range), relies on record turnout in rural/small-town MN, and recovers some lost ground in the suburbs/exurbs of MSP (where you could argue that Trump's exceptionally abysmal performance was something of an anomaly even if the long-term trend is clear). I don’t see a similar coalition in OR right now, honestly. Although gubernatorial elections can be a little less predictable than federal ones, I’d be extremely surprised if the Democrats' winning streak in OR (which is of course the longest in the country) ended in 2022. I’d be a little less surprised if they lost MN.