PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[MT Treasurer]

Because (lack of) authenticity, (lack of) trust, and (lack of) self-confidence/assertiveness are far more powerful factors in determining how persuadable voters will vote than an 'extreme' ideology.

[MT Treasurer]

Fetterman is currently coasting on Oz's enormous unfavorability #s and shunning any situation that would put the spotlight on him as opposed to Oz. While his staff is obviously adept at utilizing social media as a campaign tool and orchestrating highly selective campaign appearances, I feel like he is very much the type of candidate who will fade under pressure in a non-social-media setting. He’s certainly not someone who would fend off a competent GOP campaign which prioritized nationalization in a year like this, which is why I think Oz still has a chance if he rights the ship and at least manages to appear somewhat human/relatable in the process.

I also used to be skeptical of the GOP attacks on Fetterman's health/absence on the campaign trail, but I can see why some of it might resonate with voters at this point. For all the talk about Oz, Fetterman is also an extremely high-risk candidate who has to perform a delicate balancing act here.

[MT Treasurer]

Oz is a prime example of a candidate who could really use some of Reagan's self-deprecating humor ("The one bad thing about me winning this race would be my wife expecting me to serve the crudité" etc). Then again, the line between self-mockery and self-abasement can be thin, and while Oz does have experience playing an audience, he seems to be a lot less confident on the campaign trail.

[MT Treasurer]

So I just noticed that Oz has not led in a single poll post-primary. 

A question to my Atlas research peeps: can anybody think of a candidate (for a statewide or federal seat) who has won despite never leading in a single poll (assuming more than one or two polls). 

They led in a few pollsters, but WI Sen 2016 and ME Sen 2020 and NC Sen 2020 remind of this. VA Sen 2014 was close to this as well.

Yes, if polling continues to go downhill, this will probably become an increasingly common phenomenon.

[MT Treasurer]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

[MT Treasurer]

Wut
*snip*

This will work on an immature and partisan Twitter crowd, but in the actual world, there is a great risk of it only making Oz look more serious and polished ('Senatorial', if you want) by comparison. The last thing Fetterman wants to do is make Oz the more palatable and less out of touch option to the electorate while giving people on the fence about Oz a reason to ultimately pull the trigger for him and even feel somewhat good about their choice.

Ironically, I also said this about Oz, but I think "self-abasement" is the ever-present theat for the Fetterman campaign here.

[MT Treasurer]

Still waiting for reputable outlets to confirm this, but if this is true, it would be one of very few things that would actually make me vote third party if I lived in PA.

I wonder if Oz will be able to avoid major scrutiny over these allegations. He might be able to say that his subordinates carried out the euthanasia and that he wasn't responsible for the day to day suffering, but a lot of these descriptions sound terrible and not defensible.  It doesn't seem to be major news yet, even though it's been out for a few weeks. Why was he using dogs in the first place? Pigs are the most similar and no one really cares if a pig isn't treated well.

This reads almost as ghoulish as the story itself. Also, please speak for yourself on this.

[MT Treasurer]

LMAO, apparently scamming millions of Americans is perfectly okay but as soon as some stray dog isn’t tested perfectly you vote third party. Once again showing the American obsession with dogs.

I know you’re trying to be edgy (emphasis on trying), but if you believe someone who is capable of inflicting this kind of pain/torture on sentient beings who never did any harm to him would hesitate (for non-law-enforcement-related reasons) to pull the trigger when confronted with actual human lives, you’re greatly mistaken. This may seem like a cliché to some, but things like that really are a giveaway.

If this story is true, it would confirm that Mehmet Oz is a dangerous psychopath — people vote for dangerous psychopaths all the time, yes, but only those who are good at hiding it. No one wants to know they’re voting for a psychopath.

[MT Treasurer]

LMAO, apparently scamming millions of Americans is perfectly okay but as soon as some stray dog isn’t tested perfectly you vote third party. Once again showing the American obsession with dogs.

I know you’re trying to be edgy (emphasis on trying), but if you believe someone who is capable of inflicting this kind of pain/torture on sentient beings who never did any harm to him would hesitate (for non-law-enforcement-related reasons) to pull the trigger when confronted with actual human lives, you’re greatly mistaken. This may seem like a cliché to some, but things like that really are a giveaway.

If this story is true, it would confirm that Mehmet Oz is a dangerous psychopath — people vote for dangerous psychopaths all the time, yes, but only those who are good at hiding it. No one wants to know they’re voting for a psychopath.

Pigs and rats are intelligent as well. Would you feel the same way if it were one of those?

Yes, I would. I don’t deny that I’d probably feel more strongly about pigs than rats, but it would be a red line either way.

[MT Treasurer]

Okay, but what if it is for medical reasons? Like there is a clear benefit for this type of research…and it’s not like they are humans. If we can justify what we do in the meat industry now…we can justify this surely.

Let’s take this to PMs if you’re actually interested in having this conversation, but neither can be justified. "But you eat meat, right?" - Fair objection, but no.

[MT Treasurer]

This has to be one of the weirdest Senate races in a long time, in terms of the things the candidates are hitting each other about.

Not just this race, honestly. This is probably the weirdest midterm election of my lifetime, not just in terms of candidates, but also as far as polling and other conflicting data points are concerned. But since I like puzzles, challenges, and occasional entertainment, I’ll take it and look forward to election night.

[MT Treasurer]

Senate Majority PAC has begun airing ads about the allegations of animal abuse against Oz-

The super PAC will air two 30-second ads on the topic – one titled “Cruel,” where a narrator says dogs were “subjected to extreme suffering” in the lab, and another titled “6313,” which focuses on the treatment of a specific dog that suffered “days of unimaginable pain and suffering.”

One of the ads will first air on Tuesday during Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. The ads will then be put into the super PAC’s statewide rotation, where an aide to the super PAC says millions will be spent to air it across Pennsylvania. One of the ads will also air during Game 2 of the series between the Phillies and the Braves on Wednesday. [...]

The ads use video that is labeled as generic footage of animal testing – including dogs in cages and in other lab settings – not video specifically taken from inside Oz’s lab at Columbia. Oz does appear in the ads at times, including in doctor’s scrubs and in what looks like a hospital setting, but an aide to the super PAC tells CNN there are no images of Oz inside the Columbia lab.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/11/politics/oz-animal-cruelty-accusations-democratic-ads/index.html

Smart (and absolutely right) move.

[MT Treasurer]

This is the most exhausting race in the country. I hate everything about it from the candidates to the memes to the annoying supporters

Hate to break it to you but this race was just a preview of MT-SEN 2024

[MT Treasurer]

I really don’t (at least no longer) buy that McCormick wouldn’t have done a few points better than Oz in a general election. While 'Romney lite' or 'hedge fund manager' or whatever would have been a problem, (a) a Mitt Romney clone would probably be winning this race against Fetterman if he somehow made it out of a three-way primary, (b) Club of Growth PAC Republican Pat Toomey had some of the same vulnerabilities and yet won the state back when it was considerably less Republican (even though Sestak put up an impressive fight in the final weeks of the campaign), and — most importantly — (c) McCormick wasn’t nearly as personally contemptible or even unrelatable as Oz, which is why the focus never would have been on McCormick the person as much as it is on Oz now. Every minute that is spent trying to turn Oz into a somewhat human, somewhat acceptable alternative to Fetterman is a minute lost in what should be a relentless nationalization of this race.

When you think about it, Oz really seems like the type of Republican candidate designed in a DSCC lab in order lose a competitive race. You couldn’t even include the 'killing puppies' part in a story line because it’d be torn apart as outrageously stereotypical while the crudité part would be judged completely over the top, yet this is Mehmet Oz.

I have a feeling that those 950 votes for Oz over McCormick were possibly the costliest and most consequential ones of the cycle. When you combine this with Sununu not running for NH-SEN, the SLF (foolishly) abandoning Masters in AZ-SEN, Vance/Ryan forcing Republican to divert resources from more competitive states, and Warnock benefiting from the runoff law & the presence of a Libertarian candidate in GA (like Ossoff in 2020), it’s honestly incredible how many lucky breaks Democrats have again had this cycle.

[MT Treasurer]

Not that Oz comes across as remotely likeable, but Fetterman is really not doing himself any favors here. I know part of it is because of his stroke, but you can tell how used he is to social media as opposed to actual debate stages.

[MT Treasurer]

This debate feels like some bizarre, surreal amalgam of George W. Bush vs. Al Gore, Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, Cenk Uygur vs. Christy Smith, and olawakandi vs. 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

The biggest danger for Fetterman is that what used to be "Gee, Oz is an embarrassment" quickly turns into a "Gee, I can’t stand/listen to either of them, I’ll just hold my nose and go with the one whose party I want to control the Senate" situation.

Oz lacks empathy (we already knew that) but he obviously came across as more 'Senatorial' than Fetterman, which doesn’t help if your campaign's main focus is painting Oz as uniquely unqualified for the job.

[MT Treasurer]

The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

I’ll never not admire your side's perpetual optimism, but I’d strongly suggest seasoning it with a healthy dose of realism.

[MT Treasurer]

Not that unreasonable to believe Fetterman won’t make it past one term given (a) some of his health issues, (b) the likelihood of 2028 either marking the election of a new Republican president after eight years of Biden/Harris or the reelection of a Republican president (PA will be a must-win for the GOP by then), (c) the unusually favorable circumstances from which he benefited in 2022 and which won’t be replicated in 2028 (cartoonishly catastrophic/psychopathic opponent, strongest D midterm overperformance in nearly 100 years, localized nature of the race in a non-presidential year, GOP implosion in the gubernatorial race, Roe v. Wade decision, etc.). I can’t think of another post-2012 Senate/high-profile statewide race where the D candidate got as many breaks as Fetterman in 2022.

Obviously there’s no point in predicting anything this far out, but I would expect him and Cortez Masto to struggle quite a bit even in a neutral environment.