NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[MT Treasurer]

If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

I see. There’s still a surprising number of people who seem convinced that Democrats will win easily in November because of Roe/Trump/inflation policy but who also think that Morse winning the Republican nomination in NH instead of Bolduc will somehow make a difference in that it will turn this into a competitive race. It doesn’t make sense — if you think there’ll be a Democratic sweep in November, the Republican candidate in NH won’t matter at all.

[MT Treasurer]

Cut the man some slack — he’s obviously aware that NH politics cannot be understood unless it is viewed through the lens of gender. He just drew the (entirely) wrong conclusions from it, but that happens to all of us at times.

Should have hired me as campaign manager, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[MT Treasurer]

From the Suffolk poll (link: https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2022/09/29/13/53/2022-nh-poll)-

Among women voters Hassan dominates by a whopping 29 points (60%-31%), while Bolduc leads Hassan by 13 points among male voters. Hassan has made reproductive health care and abortion a centerpiece of her campaign, and the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June has created higher voter intensity as 76% of New Hampshire women say they are “extremely motivated” to vote this November, compared to 71% of men.

applying cook pvi, this means that nh women have a pvi of d+10 and that nh men have a pvi of r+3 in a 50/50 year, so in a r+4 year nh women vote d+6 and nh men r+7 and bolduc wins by the skin of his teeth, maybe even in a r+3 year if you factor in nh's elasticity score on 538

In all seriousness (and I know I’m giving in to past urges here), does anyone else find it highly amusing that NH was hyped up as the "marquee/bellwether race" in 2014, 2016, and 2022, and that it now again looks like it will be one of the very few bright spots for Democrats, just like in 2014 and 2016? 

Almost like NH's 'elasticity' (Nate Silver actually gave it the highest 'elasticity score' of any state in 2020) and 'swing state' status are highly exaggerated, esp. at the federal level!

[MT Treasurer]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is recommitting resources into the New Hampshire Senate race, according to an NRSC official, just days after the Senate GOP's top super PAC cancelled its spending on behalf of nominee Don Bolduc. [...]

The NRSC will be spending about $1 million on a new ad financed jointly between the committee and the Bolduc campaign. The spot will begin airing later this week.

The NRSC's decision comes days after the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund announced it was withdrawing $5.6 million in ad reservations in New Hampshire — moving those funds into the tightening Pennsylvania Senate race. [...]

"Our polling, along with recent public polling, shows that this race is in the margin of error and winnable. The NRSC is proud to stand with General Bolduc. We’re going to win this race so Don Bolduc can bring real leadership back to this Senate seat," NRSC chairman Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) tells Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

[MT Treasurer]

I lived in NH during the 2014 Brown/Shaheen race, and if Brown couldn’t beat her then, I just have a hard time envisioning Hassan losing to Bolduc, of all people, in a post-Roe angry NH woman world.

NH men outvoting NH women in a race like this would be unprecedented in recent history; if it happens (needless to say, I’m not convinced yet), it’ll probably be because there has been a realignment among male voters in the state.

Either way, I expect a nasty gender gap here, wider than in any other Senate race.

[MT Treasurer]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

Here’s their final debate from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imrvCGobADU

Again, if you watch it, it’s not hard to see why the race is a Toss-up. I will say that I’m actually glad Bolduc won the nomination and not Morse (I don’t think he would have been nearly as relentless/on-message in going after her as Bolduc).

She’s also just a very, very poor candidate (and there’s a reason why she’s the only deeply unpopular New England incumbent).