If I showed this image of 538 senate model on Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016, what would be your reaction?

[MT Treasurer]

I think their Senate model is inaccurate in many ways, but:

1. Trump's presidency was largely a disaster, with 2018 being a Democratic wave year and 2020 at the very least being a very good year for Democrats (I don’t think the 2020 projections tell us as much about the environment as the 2018 results, although races like IA are a big sign that it’s an unfavorable year for the GOP).
2. Bill Nelson and Susan Collins declined to run for another term, and Rick Scott won the open race in FL in 2018.
3. I always knew that Republicans were incompetent, but incompetent enough to actually lose a special election in AL? Wow.
4. AZ Republicans are screwed.
5. Okay, maybe retail politics doesn’t matter that much anymore (ND/IA).