If I showed this image of 538 senate model on Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016, what would be your reaction?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I ask this because it seems like so many races have become unexpectedly competative (or uncompetitive). Remember that this image would also reveal the 2018 results.

[Stuart98]

Alabama would be by far the biggest surprise, followed by Arizona.

[MT Treasurer]

I think their Senate model is inaccurate in many ways, but:

1. Trump's presidency was largely a disaster, with 2018 being a Democratic wave year and 2020 at the very least being a very good year for Democrats (I don’t think the 2020 projections tell us as much about the environment as the 2018 results, although races like IA are a big sign that it’s an unfavorable year for the GOP).
2. Bill Nelson and Susan Collins declined to run for another term, and Rick Scott won the open race in FL in 2018.
3. I always knew that Republicans were incompetent, but incompetent enough to actually lose a special election in AL? Wow.
4. AZ Republicans are screwed.
5. Okay, maybe retail politics doesn’t matter that much anymore (ND/IA).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Assuming I'd only see the picture & not underlying details:


"How is the Alabama race closer than Texas & Georgia? Dems must be running a great candidate there"

"The Arizona GOP collapsed much faster than I expected"


Outside of those two states, I'd be a bit upset that the 2018/2020 waves weren't strong enough. Particularly when it came to Florida & perhaps Missouri

[Figueira]

I don't think anyone would be able to tell there was a Democratic wave in 2018 from this. Maybe a mildly good year for Democrats, but the real wave was in the House.