Fox News AZ & NC: Kelly +17 | Cunningham +6

[MT Treasurer]

Didn’t expect McSally to lose by a larger margin than Gardner, but really seems like this race isn’t more competitive than CO (and maybe even slightly less competitive than CO), but obviously both seats are gone for Republicans.

This is the second poll to show Cunningham outperforming Biden by 2 points.

[MT Treasurer]

This lines up with the ECU poll. Tillis isn’t underperforming Trump by as much as he did two months ago & Cunningham isn’t outrunning Biden significantly among any demographic group.

Yeah, this is pretty much the only silver lining for Tillis at this point, although we’ll see what other pollsters show. That said, I don’t think he can afford even a 2-point underperformance unless there’s a significant shift in the national race (unlikely).