Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.
- Republican-trending state which will probably have a R+2 PVI after 2020 (I don’t think calling WI a "pure Tossup" is fair, especially in a midterm under a Democratic president)
- Competent Republican state party
- Fairly high Republican floor
- State doesn’t tend to be kind to the party holding the White House
- State where Democrats are particularly dependent on base turnout (which could be slightly depressed in a Biden midterm, certainly more so than in 2018)
- The Republican bench isn’t worse than the Democratic bench (arguably it’s better, but that’s debatable)
Unless Republicans nominate an awful candidate (which is possible but not particularly likely—WI isn’t AL), I’m rating this Lean R, not Tossup. Apparently this is a "bold" prediction, but by the time election day rolls around, Evers will probably be in a worse position than the Republican candidate for Senate. People really underestimate how wildly the pendulum can swing in two years, and WI isn’t even as Democratic as WV/OH/MT are Republican (all of which the Democrats held in 2018 even though there was no war or recession dragging down the incumbent's approval numbers). 2022 doesn’t need to be as ugly for Democrats as 2006/2010/2014/2018 were for the incumbent's party for WI to be Lean R.
